USDA: higher world wheat harvest, shortened maize harvests - wheat prices drop, maize rises In its latest Oct 2020 edition , the US Department of Agriculture revised the global grain harvest slightly upwards to 2,232 million t compared to the previous year. Consumption is estimated at 2,212 million t . The final stocks increase to 652 million t or 29.5% of consumption . This shows a supply situation that is in the middle of the last 6 years. Even if you leave China out on the supply side, there is little change in the supply assessment. However, there are some noteworthy differences. The global wheat harvest is classified at 773 million tons higher than in the previous month. Russia made a significant contribution, the result of which is estimated again by 5 million t higher to 83 million t . Lower wheat harvests in Ukraine (-1.5 million t), Canada (-1 million t)t), in the USA (-0.5 million t) and Argentina (-0.5 million t) change little in the increasing overall result. Wheat consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 751 million t . The increase is anticipated, especially in Russia with higher feed consumption. The wheat stocks at the end of the year are calculated to be a slight increase of 321 million tons or 42.7% of the final stock for consumption. This number is well above the multi-year average. If China is disregarded, the value drops to 25.3%, but is still 1.5% above the two previous years. With regard to future price developments, however, it must be taken into account that Russia will quota its exports from the beginning of 2021. The USDA estimates the global corn harvest to be significantly lower at just 1,159 million t. The decrease by approx. 4 million t is primarily due to the lower US corn harvest, which is only forecast to be 374 million t.Once again, the earlier assumptions about the acreage were withdrawn. In the Ukraine, too, the corn harvest and export were rated 2 million t lower. Global corn consumption is estimated at 1,163 million t. This means a decline in global end stocks that has continued for several years to now 300 million t or 25.8% of consumption . Without China, the supply figure is 12.6% final consumption and is only slightly higher than in previous years. China consistently holds more than 50% of the world's corn stocks. The reactions on the Chicago stock exchange showed after the initial upward trend shortly after the publication of the USDA report, however, a more differentiated price development at the close of the stock exchange. Wheat fell to € 18.52 / dt , while corn rose to € 13.20 / dt . The premiums in the following months were somewhat larger, but the starting level was also considerably lower.On the Paris stock exchange , the wheat and corn prices increased by around 50% in the short reaction time from publication to market close. 1 € / t.
