Sep 2022: USDA marginally corrects 2022/23 global grain supply Results compared to the previous month 's estimate The corrections to the September 22 estimate are comparatively small. The global wheat harvest will increase by 4 mn t due to higher results in Russia (91 mn t) and Ukraine (20.5 mn t). The increased consumption, however, ensures that the wheat ending stocks increase only marginally. The rest of the grain harvest, with a focus on corn, is 6 million t smaller. Cuts were made in US production (-11 Mt) and EU corn production (-1 Mt). This contrasts with increases in China (+3 million t), Russia (+1 million t), Ukraine (+1.5 million t) and Australia (+1.4 million t). .5 million t reduced. Global ending stocks ex-China fall by 5mn t compared to last month's estimate.Results in comparison to the previous year The global production is estimated at 2,247 million t (previous year 2,280 million t). Global consumption is also classified as lower at 2,263 million t (previous year 2,280 million t). The ending stocks are calculated at around 598 million t (previous year 614 million t). The supply figure falls to 26.4% ending stock to consumption (previous year 26.9%), excluding China to a declining 13.7%. The quantitative supply is thus at its lowest value for 10 years. Added to this is the insecurity of supply against the background of the war in Ukraine. In global world trade , the quantities are estimated to be lower at 435 million t (previous year 465 million t). The Ukraine exports are estimated at around 26 milliont (previous year 60 million t) drop massively; for Russia , the USDA estimates export quantities of 52 million tons of grain (previous year 42.5 million tons ). Canada's export increases compared to the heat-disaster year and the EU offset . Despite the drought , India is expected to export wheat at the previous year's level. On the import side , the critical supply situation in the North African and Middle Eastern countries is confirmed with slightly reduced import volumes. China is to reduce its grain imports by around 10% . The global grain supply for 2022/23 continues the downward trend that has been going on for around 7 years .Added to this is the increased supply insecurity as a result of the war in Ukraine. The further earnings prospects are clouded by the sharp increase in fertilizer, energy and transport costs, so that in the following year there is hardly any justification for a higher harvest prospect.
