USDA: Dec World Grain Estimate Positive Confirmed - Prices Slightly Changed The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed the month-on- month estimate of world grain supply with a modest gain in the previous month . The total harvest is estimated at 2,197 million t . Consumption in the current fiscal year 2019/20 forecasts the USDA to 2,170 million t . Although production and consumption are closer to each other compared to previous estimates, there is still a small need for them. Inventories fall from 630 last year to 621 million tons this year. In terms of consumption, the final stocks are still at a good average of 28.6%. For the assessment of the possible price development, China is usually excluded, because the country participates on the export side almost not in the grain trade, but participates with 48% massively in the world grain inventories.The China-corrected supply number then falls from 16.1 to 15.5% final stock back to consumption ; that is only a small average. The global wheat harvest of 765.4 million t remained essentially unchanged from the previous month. Cutbacks in Australia and Argentina crops were offset by slight improvements in EU, Russia and China results. Global wheat consumption was slightly reduced to 653.7 million t in the previous month for 2019/20, but is just under 20 million t above the previous year. Global wheat stocks rise from 278 to 288 million tonnes in the current financial year; in terms of consumption, the above-average high is 38.4%. For the price assessment China is to be excluded again. The supply figure excluding China is only at an average of 22.7% at the previous year's level.For the further wheat price development, especially with regard to the lack of exports, the catastrophic Australian harvest with a drop to approx. 50% of the long-term average. In the case of the global corn crop , the USDA estimates the harvest yield of 1,108.6 million tonnes slightly higher than in the previous month, but remains at approx. 16 million t below the previous year's level. Consumption is rated at 1,127.2 million t above the harvest result. This means that the shortfall from the reduction of inventories from 319 million to around 300 million tonnes must be met. The coverage rate drops from 27.8 % to 26.6%. Excluding China , the final stock falls from 12.3 to 11.7% of consumption . 90% added US crop with a world share of 35% still to be considered, whose full assessment will be made in the new year. On the Chicago Stock Exchange , the new USDA estimate has triggered little price action.There was a tendency to slightly higher wheat prices, while corn has declined only insignificantly.
