USDA predicts increasing global grain supply in 2020/21 In its first estimate of the grain harvest in 2020/21, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts production of 2,250 million tonnes. This result is 3.7% above the previous year's result. On the consumption side, 2,207 million tons are predicted or an increase of 1.8%. This results in an increase in the final stocks to 683 million tons. The supply figure increases from 28.9% to 30.9% final stock for consumption. Since China only participates in world trade to a limited extent, but has more than half of the world's grain reserves, it is advisable to calculate the supply figures without China. The key figure is then lower at 18.1%, but remains significantly above the average in a multi-year comparison. An above-average supply situation would therefore be expected. The USDA estimates global wheat production at 768.5 million tonnes slightly higher than in the previous year. Increases and reductions in individual production areas cancel each other out.Increases are particularly foreseen in Australia and Argentina , which will be offset by poor harvests in the United States, the EU and Ukraine . Wheat consumption is estimated to rise slightly to 753 million t. The global final stocks are 5% higher to 310 million tons. Without China, the overhang quantities are only half as high, but increase to a similar extent. In view of the pronounced preventive behavior of individual countries under coronavirus conditions , the future supply situation remains little changed compared to the previous situation. Global corn production is estimated to be 6.6% higher at a record level of 1,187 million tons. The increase is mainly caused by the USA with a forecast harvest of over 406 million tons, which is said to be 17% above the previous year . Smaller increases are expected in the EU, Ukraine and Mexico.Global corn consumption is estimated to be 3.6% higher at 1,162 million tons. The USDA assumes that corn use for bioethanol production will stabilize again in the coming marketing year. The balancing of production and consumption provides an increase in the final stocks from 315 to 340 million tons. Higher consumption quantities are also foreseen in the feed sector. The global stocks of maize increase from 315 to 340 million tons and are calculated for 106 days. Without China, the range is 57 days compared to 45 days in the previous year. There was only a slight increase in the rest of the grain . In an initial reaction, wheat prices on the Chicago stock exchange eased slightly while corn prices stabilized.
