USDA: Oilseed Market Preview 2023/24 – More Soy The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published an initial forecast of the 2023/24 oilseed market. The production of all oilseeds is estimated at 671 million t (previous year 627 million t). The largest share of this falls on the global soybean market with 410 million t with an increase of almost 11% compared to the previous year. Rapeseed production remains largely unchanged at the high level achieved. A price-related increase of 5% is expected for sunflowers . On the demand side , consumption is estimated at around 650 million t. This results in a price-depressing stock build-up from 118 to 139 million tons. The increase in soybean production is mainly due to the high production in Brazil of 163 million t (2 years ago 130 million t). The Brazilian harvest is almost complete. The 2nd largest crop is predicted for fall 2023 in the US at 122.7 million t.In Argentina, after last year's disastrous result of only 27 million tons, this year's harvest of 48 million tons is expected. The largest soybean consumer is China with a volume of around 120 million tons. Around 20 million t of this is produced domestically and around 100 million t come from imports from North and South America. With its own production of 2.8 million tons, the EU-27 imports 14 million tons of beans and a further almost 16 million tons of soybean meal. On the export side , Brazil is in the lead with 96.5 million t. The USA ranks second with an export volume of almost 54 million tons. Argentina exports 4.6 million tons of beans and 24.7 million tons of soybean meal and 4.6 million tons of soybean oil. In the current year, Argentina has imported around 10 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in order to utilize the processing capacities. Global rapeseed production is at 20.5 million t in the EU-27 , Canada at 20.3 million t and China at 15.4 million t and 11.7 milliont disputed in India . These 4 countries together account for around 80% of global rapeseed production. Canada is the world's largest exporter with almost 9 million tons. Added to this was Australia in recent years due to its twice high harvest due to La Niña weather. For 2023, the Australian harvest will fall back to average levels. A slightly average result is expected in the Ukraine. In contrast, the EU-27 relies on imports of 5.5 million tonnes. China is also one of the importing countries with around 3 million tons, as is Japan with 2.45 million tons. Palm oil is the second market leader in the vegetable oil market after soybean. More than 80% of the production of slightly increased 79 million t for 2023/24 takes place in Malaysia and Indonesia . Around 90% of the world market is served from these two production areas. The prices for oilseeds on the stock exchanges reacted to the USDA report mainly with price reductions.
