USDA estimates higher oilseed production in 2021/22 and even higher consumption In its June estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased the oilseed harvest in 2021/22 by 5.4% to around 633 million t (previous year 600.5 million t ) forecast. Consumption should increase to a lesser extent. The final stock is estimated at an increasing 106.3 million t. In mathematical terms, the stocks last for 73 days (previous year 72 days). The decisive increase is due to the higher harvests in the soy sector. The USDA expects a worldwide increase from 364 to 385 million tons. The additional quantities are mainly due to the Brazilian soybean harvest of 144 million t and the expected US harvest of 120 million t in the fall. Argentina only achieved a just under average result with 52 mln t. Increases in the consumption of soy are reflected in the entire oilseed sector, with the exception of falling end stocks.China in particular stands out with an increase in use of 4%, which the country has to achieve through increased imports. The company's own production is only sufficient for 19 million t of oilseeds, with a total consumption of 122 million t. When it comes to soy exports , Brazil is in first place with an expected volume of 93 million t. The USA intends to increase its exports by 10 million t to 56.5 million t in 2021/22. Despite the trade disputes, increasing US shipments to China are expected. The USDA estimates global rapeseed production at around 74 million t , which is 3 million t more than in the previous year. While a 1 million t higher harvest of 17.2 million t is expected in the EU, an increase of 1.5 million t to 20.5 million t is expected in Canada . Since the use of rapeseed is growing somewhat less rapidly, an increase in stocks is expected, particularly in the EU. In the EU, inventories are expected to rise by 38% compared to the low of the previous year.For the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds is of regional importance. Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet is number one. Support comes from the relative price worthiness of the higher quality oil. Palm oil: For 2021/22, the USDA is assuming that the estimated 76.3 million t will be able to pick up on the development of previous years. In 2019/20 production collapsed due to corona-related difficulties. The main increase comes from Malaysia with +1.2 million t to 19.7 million t and Indonesia with +1 million t to 44.5 million t. With 3.1 million t (previous year 2.4 million t), Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply quantities. However, the increases in consumption mean that closing stocks decline slightly, but still remain at a high level.
