USDA estimates higher oilseed production in 2020/21 and even higher consumption In its May estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the oilseed harvest 2020/21 by 5.3% year on year to approx. 606 million t forecast. However, the final inventory will decrease slightly due to increasing consumption, but will still remain at a comparatively high level. In terms of calculations, stocks last for 81 days, compared to 85 days in the previous year. The decisive increase took place in soybeans , which the USDA raised from 336 to 363 million tons. The high increases are mainly due to the Brazilian soybean harvest of more than 130 million t and the expected high US harvest of 114 million t in autumn. Argentina only achieved a slightly average result with 53.5 million tons. However, increases in soy consumption lead to a slight decrease in final stocks.China stands out in particular with increases of 7.5%, which the country has to achieve by increasing imports to 96 million tons. The company's own production is only sufficient for 17.5 million tons. When it comes to exports , Brazil is in first place with an estimated volume of 83 million t. The USA wants to increase its exports by 10 million tons to 56 million tons in 2020/21. Increasing deliveries to China are expected. The USDA estimates that global rapeseed production is just under 71 million t , which is 3 million t more than in the previous year. The increases occur primarily in the many smaller growing regions. In the large production countries such as Canada, China and India, there are only minor increases. For the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds is of regional importance. Palm oil: For 2020/21, the USDA expects the previous 3% decline in production to be absorbed again.The main increase comes from Indonesia , while Malaysia cannot yet return to the previous results. Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply volumes on a small scale. However, the consumption increases mean that the end stocks decrease slightly, but still remain at a high level. On the Chicago Stock Exchange , prices in the soy complex have only moved slightly down. The palm oil prices give way again after a short recovery period.
