USDA estimates world grain supply somewhat more favorable than in the previous month, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its edition Sep.2021 the world grain harvest 2021/22 to 2,277 million tonnes estimated slightly higher than in the previous month. Global consumption is also set to be somewhat higher at 2,279 million t. The inventories increase by 3% to 607 million t. The supply figure reached 26.6% final level (previous year 27.2%) of consumption, excluding China at 14.2%. In a year-on-year comparison to 2020/21, this year's harvest is no longer as bad as expected in the previous estimates. The known reductions are more than offset by increases. The harvests in Russia with -15% (-12.5 million t) remain below the previous year, also in Canada with -24% (-7.5 million t). In the USA, spring wheat has lost around 3%. The cause in North America is the great heat wave in the northwest.In Russia, grain formation has lagged significantly behind that of previous years; Winterized areas have also contributed to the reduction. In contrast, the harvests in Australia are estimated to be even higher at 47 million t. In the Ukraine, the record result of around 84 million t is confirmed . The EU-27 harvest increases slightly to 292 million t. The estimate of the global wheat harvest will be raised again to 780 million t. However, global consumption is expected to rise to 790 million t. The result is a reduction in stocks (without China) to the supply figure from 22.2% final inventory to consumption (previous year 22.7%). The export volumes of the world's largest exporting countries fell in Canada by -25% (-6 million t), in Russia by -7% (-3% million t) compared to the previous year. On the other hand, increasing export volumes are expected in the Ukraine (+6 million t), Australia (+1.5 million t).t) and the EU-27 (+6 million t). The global corn harvest will be increased by +11 million t to 1,198 million t compared to the previous month and is 7% above the previous year's result. Consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 1,186 million t. The supply situation has improved compared to the weak previous year. Compared to previous years, the stocks in the corn sector remain in the lower mid-range. The US corn harvest was increased to 381 million t (+6 million t compared to the previous month). Recent rainfall and a larger area under cultivation contribute to the increase. The US harvest, with its 32% share of world production and export, has a decisive influence on global market and price developments. But the harvest is still ahead. After the weak result of the past FY 2020/21, the corn harvest in Brazil is expected to rise again to 118 million t in the coming year with 86 million t and a 35% decline in exports , but the sowing has not yet taken place.In China , the maize harvest will increase by +5 million tons compared to the previous month's estimate to 273 million tons (previous year: 261 million tons). Favorable precipitation conditions in important cultivation regions more than compensate for the losses in the floodplains. However, Chinese corn imports remain high. On the Chicago stock exchange , the wheat prices for September 2021 fell to the equivalent of € 210 / t. After the earlier declines, the December exchange rate for maize is now quoted at € 168 / t, which has risen again. There was too little time on Friday evening for the Paris Stock Exchange to make sufficient price corrections; Wheat is quoted at around € 236 / t and corn at € 212 / t. The European umbrella association of grain and oilseed traders (Coceral) estimates the EU-27 harvest (not including UK) at around 289 million t in its Sep. 2021 edition. In the preliminary report, around 290 million t were expected. In Great Britain the harvest is estimated at 23.8 million tons.A decline can be observed in Spain after last year's record result. The German harvest is also rated lower. In contrast, in Romania, after the catastrophic harvest of the previous year, the result increased by 50%. Overall, the EU harvest is in the middle.
