USDA Apr. 2021: Global oilseed production higher than estimated in the previous month, but short end stocks The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increases global oilseed production to 598 million t , around 2 million t, in its latest April 2021 issue larger than estimated in the previous month. The majority of the increase is due to soybeans , which amount to just under 363 million t. come. In contrast, the sunflowers are rated somewhat lower. The rapeseed harvest is estimated to be slightly higher than the previous month at 70.8 million t. Insignificant changes have been made to the other oilseeds. On the consumption side , the average is assumed to be somewhat lower. The dominant trend is the Chinese consumption trend with a slightly reduced 132 million t compared to the previous month's estimate, of which around 80% consists of imports. The Chinese demand has a decisive influence on the international market and price developments in the oilseeds sector.The supply situation is characterized by a reduced inventory of around 100 million t - the lowest inventory in over 5 years. At 19.5% of the end-of-life figure, the supply figure is significantly below the long-term average. The increases in the relevant soy sector are due to the Brazilian record harvest of 136 million t, which is coming to an end. The Argentine harvest was reduced to 47.5 million t due to the drought. In Paraquay , too, the harvest was rated lower. On the demand side , China, with unchanged 100 million tonnes of soybean imports, is of decisive importance for the market and price. The deliveries are increasingly coming from Brazil again. Closing stocks of US soybeans fell sharply from 14.2 million t in the previous year to the current 3.2 million t. This is an important factor for assessing the price development.The more highly valued global rapeseed harvest also leads to rising prices with an even stronger increase in demand. The rapeseed rates are usually largely determined by the market leaders soy and palm oil. The rising price of crude oil is having an impact in the background. On the Chicago stock exchange , the prices in the soy complex fell briefly by around 1% in the early delivery months. Soy meal was even cut back by 1.5%. In Paris , the rapeseed price fell to € 510 / t. In view of the weekend, the courses are to be classified as provisional.
