- USDA makes only minor adjustments to global grain supply
- In its January 2022 edition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the world grain harvest for 2021/22 to be a little lower than in the previous month at 2,279 million tons. Global consumption will also be reduced somewhat to 2,281 million t. The inventories were increased slightly by around 608 million t. The supply figure remained unchanged at 26.6% of the end-of-life (previous year: 27.1%) of consumption, excluding China, a decrease of 14.1%. The multi-year development of a scarcer supply situation continues this year and is exacerbated by high transport and energy costs. The changes to the harvest estimates in the individual production areas remain small compared to the previous month. The wheat harvest is rated slightly higher for Argentina and slightly lower for Brazil. The US corn harvest was set a little higher.In contrast, the Brazilian corn harvest will be cut back by 2.5% due to the drought. Small cuts were also made in maize in the EU-27 and Mexico. The global supply on the wheat market is still estimated to be low based on the supply figures (without China) of 21.7% final inventory to consumption (previous year 22.8%). The wheat exports of the world's largest exporting countries remain in Canada by -43% (-11 million t), in Russia by -10% (-4 million t) further below the previous year. On the other hand, increasing export volumes are still estimated to remain unchanged in the Ukraine (+7 million t) and the EU-27 (+8 million t). On the import side , however, a considerable increase from 194 million t in the previous year to 202 million t can be observed.The global corn supply will be cut by 2.5 million t compared to the previous month. Without China, the final stock for consumption is estimated at only 10.3% and arithmetically sufficient only for around 28 days (previous year 37 days) The US corn harvest was again to around 384 million t (previous year 358.5 million t) slightly increased. Declining exports increase US ending stocks. The corn harvest in Brazil has been withdrawn for the time being, but there are still risks for the second harvest after soy in the months of April-May. In China , the increased corn harvest is estimated unchanged. Imports are expected to be around 12% lower than in the previous year and are only estimated at 26 million t. On the Chicago stock exchange , the USDA report led to significant declines in wheat and corn prices. When converted, wheat falls to € 246 / t and maize to € 207 / t. The prices on the Paris stock exchange followed with a time lag.Wheat is quoted at € 267 / t for the delivery month of March-22nd, while the maize quotations fell comparatively little to € 241 / t. The small corrections to the estimates of the global supply situation initially ensure a stabilizing effect on the share price development. This removes the bottom from speculation about further price increases. However, with a view to the second corn harvest in Brazil, the last harvests of this year are not yet wrapped up. Covid-related restrictions in logistics and political decisions can lead to further incidents and bottlenecks. Add to this the gloomy prospects for the coming harvest as a result of the global fertilizer shortage and high fertilizer prices.
