Nov.-2019: USDA confirms global wheat harvest - cuts corn harvest - less supply than last year - Stock market prices fall slightly. The latest Nov. 19 estimate of the USA's global grain harvest (USDA) yielded few changes from the previous month's results. Overall, world harvests ( excluding rice) are down by 0.05% from the previous month to 2,160.44 million tonnes . estimated. In comparison to the previous year, the world harvest 2019/20 is around. 30 million over the previous year. Global consumption is estimated at 2,170.54 million t , around 10 million t above the current harvest. The shortfall is served by the reduction in inventories , which totaled 615 million . t fall back. This year's supply situation is regularly measured on the% final stocks for consumption. Incl.In China, the supply figure in the midfield is 28.3%, but remains well behind the previous years with up to 30.7% . More meaningful is the supply number excluding China , because the country has more than 50% of the world's grain stocks, but provides almost nothing for export. Excluding China, final inventories of 2019/20 are only 15.6% of consumption compared to previous years of up to 18.4% Given the uncertainties surrounding the outstanding harvest results, holdings of 58 million tonnes of the top six exporting countries are significant which are available for additional export quantities if necessary. Two years ago, these quantities were still at 67 million t. The global wheat harvest has cut the USDA in the cases of Argentina, Australia and the US , but raised it for Russia, Ukraine and the EU . The total result of 765 milliont has not changed. Global wheat consumption is still estimated at 755 million tonnes. As a result, the overhang stocks increase to 288 million tonnes, of which China has more than 145 million tonnes. With 1,102 million tonnes or 51% of the world grain harvest, corn is the most important fruit. In comparison to the previous year maize lacks between 20 and 225 million t. The USDA cuts this year's corn production by approx. 2 million tonnes compared to the previous month due to the significant reduction in the US harvest, which is reduced by 3 million tonnes to 347 million tonnes. Discounts of 2 million tonnes are also made in the Mexican harvest. The Ukrainian harvest is also rated slightly lower. On the other hand, one expects slightly higher harvests and exports in Russia . Global corn consumption is set at 1,126 million tonnes above the current harvest.Compared to the previous month's estimate, crop reduction and increased consumption resulted in a noticeable reduction in inventories of around 2%. Of the world's 296 million tonnes of final stocks, China alone has 195 million tonnes or 66%, which are not available to potential importing countries. By contrast, additional export volumes from Brazil and Russia are expected. Overall, the USDA's November estimate was comparatively favorable in terms of weather-related adverse effects of drought, snow and frost in the respective growing regions. Crop reductions lag far behind those made in the affected areas themselves. In particular, the crop residue in US corn of around 25% is to be estimated at over 3 million million tonnes given rain, snow and freezing temperatures. The International Grains Council (IGC) expects losses of more than 10 million tonnes. However, the delayed valuation behavior of the USDA has been known for years. Prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell slightly.In addition, the weekend may have played a role in which, according to experience, participants withdraw from the business and go on the safe side line.
