Feb 2021 USDA: Global oilseed production unchanged - closing stocks falling. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is reducing global oilseed production to 595 million t in its latest February 2021 edition, which corresponds to the previous month 's estimate . Soy remains largely unchanged, while sunflowers are rated slightly higher. The changes in rapeseed and other oilseeds are negligible. On the consumption side , the numbers are expected to rise moderately for almost all oilseeds. The Chinese consumption trend has risen again to around 135.5 million tons, around 80% of which consists of imports. China's demand determines the market and price developments to a decisive extent. The inventories have again been set slightly to 95.6 million t or lower. This is the lowest level in over 5 years. At 18.5% of the end-of-life figure, the supply figure is well below the long-term average.The corrections in the relevant soy sector are insignificant compared to the previous month's estimate . The future Argentine harvest was maintained unchanged at 48 million t. The current Brazilian harvest was also unchanged at 133 million t. However, several Brazilian estimates have already signaled significantly lower results. When it comes to trade, China has a dominant market and price-dominating position with around 100 million tonnes of soybeans imported. The high purchases from the USA have resulted in the lowest inventory levels there for years. Interest is directed towards Brazil, which is said to have already sold more than 60% of the harvest. A possible smaller Brazilian harvest due to drought could contribute to further price increases. The unchanged global rapeseed harvest continues to lead to a tight market supply with a slight increase in consumption. The rising rapeseed prices are largely supported by the increased crude oil and palm oil prices.Exchange participants expected significantly lower USDA numbers. The reactions were correspondingly reserved. Soybeans and soybean meal have risen again on the Chicago Stock Exchange after a brief setback. Rapeseed has not yet fully recovered from its short-term decline on the Paris Stock Exchange . Palm oil and crude oil continue to grow.
