USDA corrects oilseed supply 2022/23 compared to the previous month. In its July 22 estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) put the new oilseed crop 2022/23 at around 643 million t (previous year 600 million t). Consumption is estimated at 632 million t (previous year 608 million t). The final stock increases to 118.5 million t (previous year 107.6). Mathematically, the inventories are sufficient for 68 days (previous year: 62 days). Compared to the previous month's estimate, however, the results are somewhat smaller. The decisive increase is due to the increased harvest in the soybean sector with 391 million t (previous year 352 million t). The global rapeseed harvest is also estimated to be higher than last year's 72 to 80.3 million tons this year. On the other hand, because of the war in the Ukraine, sunflower seed has fallen by 7 million t to just 50 million t. The soybean market is dominated by the 3 major production areas Brazil with 149 million t (previous year 126 milliont), USA with 122.6 million t (previous year 120.7 million t) and Argentina approx . 51 million t (previous year 44 million t) minted. The South American harvests will not take place until spring 2023. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil is still in first place with an increased volume of 89 million tons. In addition, there are almost 18.1 million tons of soybean meal. In 2022/23, the USA expects an export cut for beans to almost 58 million tons. US soybean meal exports change only slightly to just under 13 million tons. In addition to 4.7 million tons of beans, Argentina mainly exports 28.5 million tons of soybean meal and almost 6 million tons of soybean oil. On the import side , China is at the forefront with 98 million tons of soybeans (previous year 90 million tons) or around 60% of world trade. The reduced Chinese pig population has slowed down the previously customary annual import growth of 3 to 5 million tons.The EU-27 has been importing 15 million t of beans and 16.7 million t of soybean meal that have not been changed much for a number of years. The USDA estimates global rapeseed production to be significantly higher at 80 million t (previous year 72 million t). The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which is expected to increase to 20 million t (previous year 12.5 million t) after the heat in the previous year. Canadian rapeseed exports are to be increased again to 8.8 million t (previous year 5 million t). In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is estimated to be +0.5 million t higher at 17.8 million t . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is limited to just under 5.6 million t . According to the latest information, internationally secured shipping routes through the Black Sea for deliveries from Ukraine should be possible again. In the case of the other oilseeds, the declining production of 19 milliont Sunflower seeds are important. Production focuses on the Ukraine (4.1 million t) and Russia (5.6 million t) with a share of almost 60% of oil production. Around 75 to 80% of this is exported . The USDA continues to estimate palm oil production in the two main growing areas higher than in the previous year. Indonesia in particular is expected to serve the market with increasing exports once the export restrictions are lifted. Palm oil prices have fallen significantly recently and are now trading around the $1,000/t mark
