Jan 2021 USDA: Global oilseed production estimated lower. In its latest January 2021 edition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced global oilseed production to 594 million t , around 1 million t less than estimated in the previous month. The major part of the reduction is due to soybeans, which are only 361 million t. come. In contrast, the sunflowers are rated slightly higher. The changes in rapeseed and other oilseeds are negligible. On the consumption side , the numbers are expected to rise moderately for almost all oilseeds. The dominant figure is the Chinese consumption figures of around 135 million tons, around 80% of which are imports. The Chinese demand has a decisive influence on the international market and price developments in the oilseed sector. In the end, stocks are expected to decrease to 96.5 million t or -12.9% . This is the lowest level in over 5 years.At 18.8% of the end-of-life figure, the supply figure is well below the long-term average. The cuts in the relevant soy sector are due to the lower US harvest of around 1 million t. The future Argentinian harvest was reduced by 2 million t to 48 million t due to the drought. The Brazilian harvest that had just started was retained unchanged at 133 million t; however, damage from the drought caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon can already be identified. The bottom line is likely to be lower. On the demand side , China, with around 100 million tonnes of soybean imports , is of decisive importance for the market and price. The last deliveries came from the USA, but will increasingly come from Brazil again after the South American harvest. A possible smaller Brazilian harvest due to drought could contribute to further price increases.The unchanged global rapeseed harvest also leads to rising prices with a slight increase in consumption. The rapeseed rates are usually largely determined by the market leaders soy and palm oil. On the Chicago stock exchange , the prices in the soy complex rose briefly by + 5%. In Paris , the rapeseed price exceeded € 440 / t . Price stabilization has not yet occurred.
