USDA predicts increasing global grain supply in 2020/21 In its second estimate of grain supply in 2020/21, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increases production to 2,258 million tonnes. This result is 3.8% above the previous year. On the consumption side, 2,210 million tons are predicted or an increase of 1.9%. This results in an increase in the final stocks to 687 million tons. The supply figure increases from 28.9 to 31.1% final stock for consumption. That is at a record level. Since China participates only to a limited extent in world trade, but has more than half of the world's grain reserves, it is advisable to calculate the supply figures without China. The key figure is then lower at 18.3%, but remains at the highest level in a multi-year comparison. This would mean that the supply situation would be well above average in 2020/21. The USDA estimates global wheat production to be 773.4 million tonnes, 1.1% higher than in the previous year.Increases are forecast in particular in Australia ( + 25%) , Argentina (+10%), Canada (+5%) , India (+3.4%) and China (+2.3%). Under-harvesting in the EU (-9%), Ukraine (-9%), North Africa (-5.5%) and the USA (-2.2%) largely offset the increases in production. Wheat consumption is estimated to rise slightly to 753 million t. The global final stocks grow by 6.8% to 316 million tons. Without China, the overhang quantities are only half as high, but are increasing to a similar extent. Wheat stocks excluding China last for 90 days (previous year 85 days). In view of the pronounced precautionary behavior of individual countries under convid pandemic conditions , the high supply situation may still have to be put into perspective.Global corn production is estimated to be 6.6% higher at a record level of 1,188 million tons. The increase is mainly caused by the USA with a forecast harvest of over 406 million tons, which is said to be 17% above the previous year . In Mexico , the corn harvest is expected to deliver 30% more than in the weak previous year. Ukraine expects an 8% crop increase . Global corn consumption is estimated to be 3.6% higher at 1,163 million tons. The USDA assumes that corn use for bioethanol production will stabilize again in the coming marketing year. Higher consumption quantities are also foreseen in the feed sector. The global stocks of maize increase from 313 to 338 million tons and are calculated for 106 days. Without China, the range is 57 days compared to 45 days in the previous year. There was only a slight increase in the rest of the grain .For the EU-28 , the USDA estimates a total harvest of 305 million tons, of which 141 million tons is wheat. Union exports are expected to drop from 48 to 38.5 million tonnes. Imports should remain largely the same. The USDA calculates the EU surplus stocks to approx. 28 million tons. almost unchanged from the previous year. In a first reaction, wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange dropped significantly and this year fell below the $ 5 per bushel (€ 152.73 / t) mark for the third time. The US corn prices show only a slight downward trend.
