World trade in dairy products - relatively stable on the export side - weaknesses on the import page
Take the 6 leading export destinations for EU dairy, United States, NZ, AUS, arg. and Uru, captured 90 percent of exports at world level.
In the average of the years 2013 and 2014 , an increase in the main products full, thin, is to identify whey powder as well as butter and cheese. The typical course of the year will be marked by high sales volumes in the spring and last quarter of the year and a significant sales weakness in the third quarter of the year.
The beginning of the year 2015 showed higher monthly fluctuations, however, was on average approximately at the same level as the previous year 2014. The declining sales volumes to the summer months are visible at least in the first approaches. Overall a stable to slightly declining trend of exports should be noted.
On the import side, China, Russia, Algeria, the Middle East, South Korea and Japan are in front place.
It concerns in particular cheese and butter in the first months of 2015 import of Russia halved while the skimmed milk powder has remained largely unchanged.
The imports China lie in the 1st of the year 2015 approximately 40 to 60% below the high import volumes of the year 2014. In recent times the imports approaching again more the previous lines. Increases in previous years are for the time being not to recognize.
Both China and Russia have been a significant gap in the global sales of dairy products.
If still little broke the export quantities, this is due to the rising exports to other import countries. High growth rates are for South Korea and the United States, which focused on the imports of cheese are. Japanese imports can but have not quite high growth rates, show but at least one firm to slightly increasing tendency.
The basic problem of low milk prices is significantly lower imports of the two largest import countries Russia and China. While is to rake for Russia for political reasons foreseeable with a revival of the import volumes, the import volumes could rise again when a better Chinese economic development. The rebuilt stock levels are currently mined by slightly increasing consumption growth slow.
Over the medium term is in China a pent-up demand arise. The growing Chinese population with rising incomes will ask more dairy products. The domestic production will not be able to meet this demand.
