Neue Ernteprognosen für Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen

Hallo,

Informa veröffentlichte gestern neue Schätzungen für die Agrarrohstoffe. Nachfolgend der gestrige Researchbericht von ADM:

SOYBEANS....Soybean futures dropped 10 cents. SX range was 888-902. SX closed
near 892.5. Wide range in crude oil 75.35-77.23 weighed on soyoil prices. Early
calls were lower after overnight wheat prices traded lower on news of better
chances of rain in Australia and Argentina. Fact FC Stone raised their est of
final US soybean crop to 2682 mil bu also offered resistance. After the open,
Informa est the US soybean crop near 2664 mil bu. Both est are above USDA Aug
est of 2625. Informa lowered prod est in the south and IND. Increase in MINN,
IA, KS, NEB, ILL and MICH though offered declines in the south. Oil world
recently est that 07/08 world oilseed prod to drop 12 MMT to 384 MMT. THey est
total use near 402 MMT. This reduces end stocks from a record 82 MMT to 64 MMT.
They also reported that sunseed prices are at all time highs. This due to drop
in production. They also reported that high prices has reduced the growth of
world vegoil demand. SX continues to reject the recent highs near 915. First
level of support is near the 50 day moving ave near 871.

US Soybean Export Basis 10X unch

BEAN OPTIONS...Beans ended the day 10 1/2 lower Nov as a couple of bearish crop
estimates and losses in the neighboring wht and corn weighed on prices. The Nov
volatility 1.25% lower at 24.75-25.25%, Jan .25% easier at 24.5-25%.

CORN....Corn futures ended lower. CZ gapped open lower after wheat prices traded
lower and fact FC Stone raised their est of US 2007 corn prod. CZ continued to
reject the recent high near 357. Today some sell stops were hit below recent low
near 338. Some feel initial support is near 331. Wave traders feel a correction
to near 315 CZ is possible. After the open, Informa est Us 2007 corn prod near
13,323 mil bu. This suggests a US yield near 156 vs USDA Aug est of 152.8.
Informa raised yields in OH, MICH, MINN, IOWA, MO and SDAK. Early harvest yields
appear to be coming in better in NEB and ILL. If USDA confirms the Informa
numbers it could add 269 mil bu to the US carryout. There also remains talk that
USDA est of total US 2007/08 corn use of 12,690 mil bu may be high due to lower
livestock profits and reduced ethanol margins. Talk of US farmers lower 2008
corn acres and continued strong world energy prices and good global economic
growth should offer support to corn long term.

US Corn Export Basis 49Z unch

CORN OPTIONS...A lower close in corn with Dec down 6 1/2 as bearish crop
estimates ahead of next Wednesday's USDA production report and losses in wht
pressured prices. Mann +1000 Mch 460 calls 5, JP Morgan +500 Dec '08 390-490
call spds 27, Tenco -500 Dec 320 -340 put spds 9. the Dec volatility steady at
29.75-30.25%, Mch .25% easier at 26.25-26.5%, and May .5% better at 26.5-26.75%.

WHEAT....Wheat futures closed all over the place. WU closed down 26 cents and
near 816. WZ closed down 11 cents and near 824. WN 8 closed down almost 20 cents
and near 606. KWU settled up 9 cents and near 790. Range was 770-798. KWN 8
closed down 21 cents and near 599. MWU closed up 8 cents and near 760. MWZ
settled down also 12 cents and near 760. MWN 8 closed down 10 cents and near
690. Rains in Australia are forecast for even more next week offered resistance
to wheat. Noon maps reduced rains for Australia for next week. Same group of
maps added rains for most of Argentina. Fact that Algeria bought 500-700 MT of
milling wheat for Feb through March and fact Morocco bought US wheat overnight
helped rally wheat futures to session highs. Informa reduced their est of world
2007 wheat prod 3.5 MMT to 607.5 MMT. The decline was in Europe. Informa still
est Australia prod near 22.5 MMT. Most est have fallen below 20 MMT. They also
est Argentina prod near 14.7 MMY. WZ chart has a lot of gaps to fill back to
near 760. The old trading system of the voice of the tomb suggested to buy wheat
July 1. It now suggests to sell wheat Sept 10.

US Wheat Export Basis optU unch

WHEAT OPTIONS... Wht returned what amounts to a small portion of the recent
gains with Dec down 11 1/2 as profit taking in a market due for a bit of a
correction pushed us lower. FC Stone +1000 Dec 800-780 put spds 9. The Dec
volatility 4.75% down at 38.5-38.75% Mch 2.75% lower at 34.5-35%.

Gruss Sebastian