Tokai Tokyo Research Center: Nikkei über 11.000 zum Jahresende

Friday, August 29, 2003

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: Nikkei To Hit 11,000 By Year-End

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The stock market is likely to remain firm, with the Nikkei Stock Average expected to move toward 11,000 by year-end, predicts Toshio Sumitani, senior strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.

Sumitani had attributed the market rally in May and June to rising U.S. shares, so he had been suspicious about whether it was sustainable. But the market outlook has become even brighter because of the recent release of a series of domestic economic indicators pointing to improvements in both the corporate and household sectors, he says.

He also has high expectations for the improvement of microeconomic factors, including corporate earnings, thanks to the improvement in economic conditions. If a growing number of firms revise their earnings forecasts upward, the market should receive a tailwind, he adds.

Since the market is riding on the improving economic fundamentals, its rise will not be spectacular, but it should be well-underpinned, according to Sumitani.

Concern about supply-demand conditions is also dwindling, he says. Sumitani holds that even when buying from foreign investors slows down, corporate share buybacks and bargain-hunting by individual investors emerge, supporting the market on the downside. Selling stemming from the return of pension assets to the government has peaked, he adds. Overall, buying will likely prevail in the market from now on against the backdrop of improving business sentiment, Sumitani says.

Sumitani wants to selectively buy the stocks supported by solid earnings and low price-earnings multiples, and also re-evaluate retail and pharmaceutical shares that have been lagging behind the market.

(The Nikkei Financial Daily Friday edition)