Sojaöl: Biodiesel zieht Preise nach oben

Gestern hat die US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)einen, für Soja-Biodiesel wichtigen Bericht herausgegeben:
Hier eine Zusammenfassung:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420f10007.pdf
Hier alle Links:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/index.htm#regulations

Darin heißt es unter anderem:
" EISA Expands Coverage to Include Diesel and Nonroad Fuels
EISA expanded the RFS program beyond gasoline to generally cover all transportation fuel.
This now includes gasoline and diesel fuel intended for use in highway vehicles and engines,
and nonroad, locomotive and marine engines. These provisions continue to apply to refiners, blenders,
and importers of transportation fuel (with limited flexibilities for small refiners), and their percentage
standards apply to the total amount of gasoline and diesel they produce for such use."

Dieser Bericht ist sehr positiv aufgenommen worden:
Siehe z. B. CME-Market commentary:
"Traders were bracing for bad news from the EPA regarding whether or not bio-diesel would qualify under the new renewable fuel standards when considering the indirect land use. However, the news was supportive this week and this could spark a jump in production from soybean oil. The bio-diesel industry was operating at just 15% of capacity at the end of 2009 and production was thought to be slipping in January as well due to uncertainties on the mandate qualifications and government delays in subsidies."

Dieser Bericht hat gestern in einem negativen Umfeld (Cl, Hg, Aktienmärkte, etc.)
zu einem 4% !! Anstieg des Kontraktbestandes bei Sojaöl, bei sehr hohen Umsätzen geführt.
Die Fonds haben ihre Shortpositionen um ca. 3000 Kontrakte reduziert (auf -11000).

Ferner ist auffällig, dass der SMH10-BOH10 möglicherweise hier einiges der Entwicklung bei BO im Verhältnis zu SM vorweggenommen hat.
Schließlich fällt mir wieder ein, dass heuer ja die ansonsten gute Sojaernte durch Herbstfröste etwas beeinträchtigt worden ist. Soweit ich weiß, ändern Herbstfröste nichts mehr am Mehlgehalt bei Soja, aber der Ölanteil wird geringer. (Stimmt das ? Kann mir ein Landwirt das bestätigen ?)

Nun, gibt es denn Meinungen zum Sojakomplex im Allgemeinen und zu Sojaöl insbesondere ?

DJ Biodiesel Industry Continues To Try To Revive Tax Incentive

By Bill Tomson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The soyoil-based biodiesel industry was shocked to
learn that restoration of a $1-per-gallon tax incentive for producers has been
cut from a jobs bill, National Biodiesel Board spokesman Michael Frohlich said
Friday.

There is still hope that the incentive, which is considered necessary for
restarting U.S. biodiesel production, can be reattached to the jobs bill,
Frohlich said. Industry representatives are also looking for other legislation
to which the incentive could be attached.

Frohich said it was an odd move for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.,
Nev.) to cut the incentive from the bill because 23,000 biodiesel industry jobs
are hanging in the balance.

There are 180 biodiesel plants in the U.S. that produced about 450 million
gallons of fuel in 2009. All of that production stopped with the loss of the
tax incentive, Frohlich said. Congress allowed the $1-per-gallon government tax
incentive to expire Dec. 31.

Zu dem kräftigen Anstieg des Kontraktbestandes im letzten COT-Bericht haben die Producer (sowohl auf der Long- als auch Short-Seite !) beigetragen.
Die Gruppe der SWAP-Dealer und Managed Money haben beide die Longpositionen aufgestockt und Shortpositionen reduziert.

Interessant ist auch foldendes aus dem aktuellen Oil crop outlook der USDA vom 12.2.2010:

"However, the increase for Argentine exports of soybean oil this year may be muted by expanding
domestic use, particularly for biodiesel. Due to Argentine export taxes for biodiesel that are
almost half the rate for soybean oil, biodiesel exports have become a very profitable alternative.
In addition, domestic use of biodiesel is also set to expand. Argentina will soon require that 5
percent of its domestic fuel supply be blended with biofuels. That alone could create a demand
for up to 700,000 tons of soybean oil annually."

aus:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/OCS/OCS-02-12-2010.pdf

sowie:
http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=2664&q=&page=1