Yara: Global N-fertilizer market will be tighter in the future - prices are picking up. In the past years 2015 to 2018, there has been an above-average increase in global (excluding China) urea production capacities . The urea prices fell on average by 25%. Only in 2018 did the prices rise significantly again without having reached the high level of the years before 2014. In its most recent quarterly report Yara forecast - the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer company based in Norway - a significant decline in global production increases in the years 2019-2023. The low point is to be reached in 2020. Only in India and Algeria should significantly reduced investment be made. However, production capacity is to be noticeably increased again for the years 2021-2023 , but without reaching the level of 2014-2018 .While India is always involved , Russia and Nigeria are increasingly joining investors. With average annual consumption growth of 2.8% , increased production in 2020 and 2021 will not be enough to meet demand. Although the shortfall will be covered by the reduction in inventories, the supply situation will become narrower . According to the market rules, therefore, a higher level of urea prices is expected in the next two years. However, the political tensions between the US, China and Iran should not go unnoticed. The disputes are well suited to disrupt investment and the movement of goods. The fluctuating exchange rates additionally increase the uncertainty in pricing. In the case of Germany , the new fertilization laws are forcing a reorientation of the fertilizer market. In the trend, demand in this country should give way noticeably. However, the impact on prices is likely to be limited.
