06.
05.14
Weak U.S. wheat crop - the US maize is still the choice of direction.

Getreide Cockpit, 06.05.2014

Bullish
  • Weak U.S. wheat crop 2014
  • Uncertainties of the wheat and corn offers in the Black Sea region
  • Uncertainties about the further development of maize sowing
  • El Nino Wetter threatens with unknown extent of southern hemisphere
Bearish
  • A cheap Kornbildungs and grain filling phase is not to exclude
  • Demand for grain imports from China not as plying

Appointments at the CME

Converted into € je

May 14

Jul 14

Sep-14

Dec 14

March 15

US wheat

193.00

195,47

197,60

201,07

201,60

US corn

144,13

145,27

144,13

143,00

144,50

U.S. corn seeding due to weather conditions in the backlog

As of May 4, 2014, approximately 29% of the intended U.S. corn areas were ordered. This means an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the previous week, is also a considerable backlog compared to the five-year average of 42%.

Maize sowing is hampered by overnight heavy rains, which should stop KW, but then subside even mid-19th. The backlog in individual States is remarkable: there is a gap of ordered 8% to 46% in the average years in Minnesota. In Michigan, there are 3% to 25% in the multiannual mean.

On the other hand is pointed out by expert page, that the dates should be seen not as tight, because the amount of time the grain coarsening and grain ripening is crucial as the sowing date within the optimal range in August 2014.

The 20 KW is expected mostly dry weather, which could rapidly take forward ordering work.

Time is short, because the date of mid-May is optimal when lastif the crop should not damage.  The drill will be in shift changes around the clock. It is basically optimistic that in the next 20 KW quite additional can be ordered 40% of the area, which you could then be in good average.

Also the other summer crops have suffered from the wet and cold weather conditions, have not the importance of the corn area with over 65% but less than 20% by far.

In the wheat cultivation area , the drought with strong wind conditions remains the biggest problem after the stocks still not have coped with the Dewinterizing damage. According to the assessments of the mobile appraiser Group (Scouts), one must assume that the earnings ratios look so bad as last 1996. Some dare even comparing to the year 1930, the year of the drought of the century.

The stock assessments reach the lowest numbers in the upper scale values and the lower ranges of rating the highest values up to 40%.

In addition to the political and financial uncertainties in the black sea areas, the rates are further top-driven, increasingly pronounced in the wheat, somewhat restrained in the corn.

Weak U.S. wheat crop - the US maize is still the choice of direction.
ZMP Live+ Logo

ZMP Live Expert Opinion

On the wheat market in 2014, a slightly tighter supply situation as a result of the weak US crop compared to the previous year is looming. To what extent other wheat growing area can afford compensation is questionable, likely with regard to Europe, with regard to the Black Sea region also in mass.

On the feed grain market is still little decided in the face of US dominance. The development direction is only herausskristallisieren in the next few months.

ZMP Market Report Compact
Latest news from the markets, in compact for you

You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!

11.
05.24
09:06

1st USDA estimate: World grain market 2024/25 with little change from previous year In its latest May issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published an initial estimate of the world grain supply in 2024-25. Global production and consumption are expected to increase only slightly. However, stocks are trending downwards compared to the…

24.
04.24
09:29

MARS estimates EU wheat yields slightly above average In its new Apr. 24 issue, the EU Commission's Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) has updated its yield forecasts from the previous month based on the climate data evaluation from 1 Mar. to 13 Apr. 2024. The comparisons are made with both the previous year and the 5-year average. In the…

19.
04.24
14:18

IGC updates forecast for the global grain market 2024/25 The International Grains Council (IGC) has updated its forecast for the global grain market in 2024/25 in its Apr. 24 issue. Production is estimated to be 10 million tons lower than in the previous month at 2,322 million tons. The decisive factor was the reduction in the US harvest. Global…

Rückrufservice
Please describe your request so that we can prepare for the callback.
Yes, I have read the Privacy Policy note and I consent that the data provided by me, including the contact data, for the processing of the inquiry and in case of questions are electronically collected and stored. My data will only be used strictly for my request and will not be passed without my consent. This consent can be revoked any time with effect for the future.'
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Register now

Jetzt registrieren und ZMP Live+ 14 Tage kostenlos testen!
  • Dauerhaft kostenfrei
  • Keine Zahlungsinformationen erforderlich