12.
06.14
USDA estimates second-best harvest 2014/15

Getreide Cockpit, 12.06.2014

Bullish
  • Ernterisisken are still
  • Weather anomaly EL Nino hardly predictable
Bearish
  • Prospects for a high harvest well justified according to current knowledge
  • below-average consumption increase

USDA report: high harvest expectations confirmed

The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) has in its recent June issue a global grain harvest totalling 1,960 million tonnes (previous year 1.1986 million tonnes) estimated. Represents a consumption amounting to 1.950 million tonnes (previous year 1.941 million tonnes) compared to.

Considering the initial data, restocking is expected at the end of the grain from 391 to 401 million tons. This provides a soothing cushion for any misjudgments. The supply figure "stock-to-use ratio" is calculated to 20.5%. That is exactly the 10-year average.

The wheat harvest will be significantly lower as compared with 714 million tonnes with 701 million tonnes. On the consumption side, 699 million tonnes are (year t 703 million). The overhang of stocks changed little. The supply situation corresponds to the multi-annual average.

In the feed grain , a total harvest is estimated from 1,259 million tonnes compared to 1,273 million tonnes. A corn crop of 957 million tonnes it contains, which grows up to 40% in the United States. The supply situation in the area of feed grain is approximately 17% of the good average.

In the world's largest wine-growing area of United States grows a crop of approximately the same high as in the previous year. The U.S. wheat crop is classified due to Auswinterungs - and dry damage by around 15% less than normal. Both of US wheat export will lose strong competitiveness by the amount of the price here. For extrapolating with exceptionally good U.S. corn crops.

In the EU-28 is the third best harvest with just under 300 million tonnes to be achieved. Average wheat yields due to the favourable developments of the early summer help that the EU ahead of the United States is the world's largest wheat exporter. The favourable transport connections contributes to a tangible competitive advantage to the largest importing region on the coast of North Africa and the Middle East.

The Black Sea countries Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan should await you while with average crops and export numbers, but are the reservations with regard to the political and financial uncertainties by the hand to show. Dry damage in parts of Russia and Kazakhstan are not yet in full extent estimated. The Black Sea region with its low-cost offerings makes fierce competition of the EU, but allow the grain qualities of this origin area often lacking.

China expects a bumper crop after the projections. The cereal imports hochgeschnellten high in previous years to reduce in the coming year from 19 to 13 million tons. At the same time increase the inventories have become critical from 35 to about 40%. Although the Chinese engineer can no longer comply with the original goal of 95% self-sufficiency, but ensures the Government's policy ensure that the cereal stocks not covered by 35%.

The crops in the Nov./Dez.2014 on the southern hemisphere Australia and Argentina are still difficult to assess. The El Nino weather phenomenon may create unpredictable conditions. The Australian Department of agriculture ABARES has already significantly reduced its harvest forecasts after be misjudged in the eastern areas already the ground-water supply as not enough.

The listings have mostly responded with price declines. This price pressure will build in the next few weeks after the start of an early and large crop which is into perspective with harvest completed. The later dates of courses on the exchanges indicate again rising prices in the further course of the year.

USDA estimates second-best harvest 2014/15
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The estimation of a second global cereal harvest in 2014/15 is well substantiated from today's level of knowledge. Although failures in areas can be seen, also above average good developments are proof. The crop risks remain. EL Nino into account, is hard to calculate.

The fall in stock prices reflects the good average supply situation. The harvest pressure will continue in the next few weeks and months. The mediocrity of the supply situation will be reflected in the course of the year but in average prices. We can hope also a re recovery of leaning now below average prices.

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