Getreide News, 02/10/2023

In the course of this trading week, the wheat contracts in Paris were able to increase in price. The red signs on Thursday did not change that. The March front month closed yesterday with a settlement of 291.75 euros/t. On Thursday last week, the March date was quoted at 283 euros/t. On the CBoT, grain developed in exactly the opposite direction and lost on a weekly basis. A similar picture emerges for corn. While European prices were firmer on a weekly basis, American prices fell. The main focus of the market participants was the WASDE on Wednesday this week with new estimates for the ending stocks, production and consumption as well as imports and exports of important agricultural commodities. However, the comprehensive set of figures did not cause any major surprises for wheat. The US figures remained essentially unchanged, but there were minor adjustments at the global level. The Russian harvest was increased by 1 million tons and significantly more wheat was also forecast for Australia. Here the plus compared to the January WASDE is 1.4 million tons. Global consumption was also adjusted upwards, increasing by 1.4 million tons to 791.2 million tons.The European Union and Russia in particular are likely to benefit from the resulting increase in demand. The USDA raised the forecast for European export volumes from 36.6 to 37 million tons. Looking at the current import statistics of the European Union, up to February 5 of this year, 19.04 million tons of common wheat were exported to third countries. So far in the current financial year, Morocco has bought the largest quantities in Europe, followed by Algeria and Egypt. However, the latter two countries have recently also purchased more wheat supplies from Russia. According to market participants, in a tender from Algeria for a quantity of between 360,000 and 390,000 tons, large parts of the wheat bookings made came from Russia, but France is also said to be involved with a batch. In Germany itself, exporters tend to be dissatisfied with international demand. On the spot markets in this country, grain transactions are somewhat heterogeneous. While it can be heard from northern Germany that the mills continue to have only a very limited need, in the south and west the feed mills seem to be more active.Here and there, interest in longer-term contracts is also reported, which, however, only very rarely materializes due to the lack of willingness on the part of the agricultural sector to sell. But there is speculation everywhere about how much grain is still in the producers' warehouses. The forecasts differ widely with 20 to 50 percent unsold grain stocks. On the corn market, all eyes are still on South America. According to the latest figures from the WASDE report, Brazil could overtake the USA as the world's largest exporter of corn. Compared to the January WASDE, the USDA raised its forecast for Brazilian corn exports by a full 3 million tons. At the same time, Argentina's export volumes were reduced by 3 million tons. The USDA estimates Argentina's corn crop will end at 47 million tons, 5 million tons less than previously expected. The grain exchange in Rosario, Argentina, recently estimated a harvest volume of 42.5 million tons and yesterday the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced that it would leave its forecast at 44.5 million tons. On the demand side, the USDA expects a larger import quantity for Europe than previously assumed. The EU is expected to pay 23.5 milliontons will have to be imported (January-WASDE: 21.5 million tons). In the import statistics of the EU Commission for the current financial year up to 5.2. so far this year, 16.69 million tons of corn have been reported. This corresponds to an increase of 6.82 million tons compared to the previous year. In the Ukraine, the last corn fields that had to overwinter due to the war are still being harvested. With the start of today's trading day, there are green signs for wheat on the Euronext/Matif, some of which are making up for the losses of the previous day. Maize also starts with firmer courses in the last trading day of this week. Premarket data in Chicago also shows rising prices for both grain futures.