Getreide News, 03/03/2023

On balance, wheat prices went south this week. The Russian competitive situation put pressure on prices on the Euronext up to and including Wednesday, and the CBoT also showed weaker trends for grain. However, with yesterday's trading day and the first hours of trading this Friday, wheat prices on the Matif are taking a step in the opposite direction again. While in the last two weeks the international competitive situation was mostly a reason why grain prices were generally under pressure, according to statements made by the Russian Foreign Minister at the G20 summit in India, there are increasing concerns about the extension of the grain agreement for Ukraine. Foreign Minister Lavrov once again sharply criticized the West in New Delhi and called for an end to sanctions in order to extend the grain agreement. The announced negotiations about the extension have not yet started despite the announcement. Accordingly, this news situation is driving prices north again. Wheat closed yesterday at EUR 275.00, EUR 3 higher than on Wednesday.However, some market participants object to the fact that Russia made similar demands for the last extension, but ultimately agreed to an extension of 120 days. The current agreement is valid until March 18 of this year. On the local cash markets, sales continue to be manageable. Here, too, the prices were under pressure. Domestic producers are currently facing increasing competition from Eastern Europe, which are also active on the German market with cheaper offers. EU export shipments have calmed down significantly over the past week, even if the export figures for the entire season are still well above those of the previous financial year. By February 26, EU exporters had exported 20.47 million tons, compared to 19.09 million tons in the previous year at this point in time. In the last week, however, only 50,563 tons were loaded for export. The average weekly export volume for all calendar weeks of the current financial year was significantly higher at 592,600 tons. In the most recent tenders from Jordan and Egypt, Russia was awarded the contract.Here the European offers from Romania and Bulgaria were not competitive. Export activity on the CBoT has recently been disappointing. Although shipments were better than in the previous weeks, yesterday's publication by the USDA was mostly disappointing with just 300,900 tons of wheat sold. As a result of worries about the future of the grain agreement, prices on the CBoT could also rise in Chicago yesterday, despite the weak export figures. The agricultural company Graincrop from Australia expects significantly less wheat in the country for the 2023/24 harvest. Instead of this year's provisional 26.6 million tons, Graincrop only expects 25-26 million tons. European Union maize exports remain at record levels. In the marketing year to date, more maize tonnages have already been imported than in the entire last marketing year 2021/22. At that time, a total of 16.42 million tons were imported. By February 26 of the current 2022/23 marketing year, imports had already reached a volume of 17.94 million tons. The main suppliers are Ukraine and Brazil. The harvest there – in Brazil – has recently progressed better and, according to various sources, the second maize sowing has also picked up speed.For Argentina the situation has not changed. The grain exchange recently announced yesterday that it would again correct its corn forecast downwards. Corn went out of trading on the CBoT yesterday with no clear direction. The front appointments lost, but changed direction several times. For the week as a whole, however, corn traded weaker on the CBoT. The majority of weekly export sales were disappointing and were the lowest in recent weeks. Weaker prices have recently also been seen on the Matif, which also had an impact on the cash markets, but the most recent concerns about the grain agreement supported the price structure again.