Getreide News, 07/07/2023

Although grain prices were under pressure on most trading days this week, wheat prices were firmer at the closing bell on Thursday. The front month of September closed with a settlement of 233 euros/t, last Friday the scoreboard on the Paris stock exchange stood at 230.75 euros/t. Maize, on the other hand, gave way and closed the most traded November contract at a price of 224.25 euros/t after last Friday's price of 227.75 euros/t for the contract. In central and northern Germany in particular, precipitation this week and last week has temporarily improved the prospects for the grain harvest. The corn stocks in particular should benefit from this, but the precipitation is also convenient for the ripening of the wheat. In southern Germany, on the other hand, little rain has fallen, and there are greater concerns about the forthcoming wheat harvest and corn plant growth. Due to the weather situation in recent weeks, the German Farmers' Association lowered the forecast for local production in its talks about the start of the harvest. Overall, the association expects a grain harvest of 40.9 milliontons, which corresponds to a decrease of around 5 percent compared to the previous year. The German Raiffeisen Association last issued a forecast of 42 million tons in mid-June. The analysis house Avaralis and the company Intercerales, on the other hand, are assuming extraordinarily good yields per hectare in France. In Russia, Agritel has raised its forecast for the local harvest from 83.2 million tons to 85.7 million tons. Although drought also prevailed at times in southern Russia, the stocks are still well developed. With regard to export prices in Russia, Sovecon recently reported firmer price trends. In the United States, trading was paused on Tuesday for Independence Day. Things then went up significantly on Wednesday, especially because the condition ratings for US wheat, especially spring wheat, were surprisingly revised downwards again despite some rainfall in the Great Plains. In addition, this year's harvest is progressing very slowly compared to last year. Rainfall in the Great Plains and the Corn Belt has also pushed corn prices down.Yesterday, however, things went clearly north, also because not all areas in the Corn Belt are benefiting from the precipitation and high temperatures are forecast for the coming days. Meanwhile, the second corn harvest is in full swing in Brazil. According to official information, around 20 percent of the stocks have retracted. In Europe, the French house of Strategie Grains reduced its forecast for the EU maize harvest by 900,000 tons this week and now expects a harvest volume of 61.2 million tons. At the end of June, the EU Commission issued a forecast of 63.95 million tons. The barley harvest has now started everywhere in Germany. In Lower Saxony, rain showers hamper harvesting work. In Bavaria, there are very large regional differences in yields, as the Bavarian Farmers' Association announced yesterday. On the cash markets, wholesale prices are already showing some harvest pressure.