Getreide News, 07/14/2023

This week, the grain market is mainly influenced by the WASDE, which the USDA published on Wednesday. The weather also plays an increasingly important role. On the Euronext/Matif, the September contract went slightly south for the week to date, even if there were positive tendencies again yesterday. Even today, the contacts for wheat on the Paris stock exchange start again with a green sign. The most traded November date for Matif corn, on the other hand, increased slightly. Here, too, there are positive tendencies at the start of trading on Friday. The cash markets are described as calm overall. In the WASDE report on Wednesday, the USDA gave the US crop a higher rating. However, the forecasts for the 2023/24 financial year have been adjusted downwards for Europe and Argentina. The experts at the US Department of Agriculture now expect 138 million tons of wheat for Europe. In the June WASDE, the wheat harvest was still seen at 140.50 million tons. For Argentina, the USDA's estimate is 1.9 million tons higher than the grain exchange in Rosario estimated yesterday. Wheat production is estimated to be slightly lower globally than in comparison to the June WASDE.The ending stocks fall from the previous 270.71 to 266.53 million tons, because in addition to the slightly lower production, the consumption is rated higher compared to the last WASDE. Overall, this season's wheat harvest is expected to be higher than last year. A larger harvest compared to the previous year is also still expected for corn. Production in the USA was adjusted upwards due to a higher acreage, but market participants doubt whether this forecast is realistic due to the current weather development. The USDA has lowered its corn forecast for Europe from 64.3 to 63.40 million tons. The German Raiffeisen Association also issued a renewed forecast this week in its fifth crop estimate. According to DRV estimates, the wheat harvest is now expected to be 221.79 million tons, a good 3.2 percent below the previous year's volume. A smaller harvest is also expected for barley compared to the previous year. The latter is currently in full swing. Good yields are reported particularly in western Germany and the north-west, while farmers elsewhere are not always satisfied with the quantities harvested. The first wheat harvest has also taken place, with disappointing protein values.For corn, the DRV has adjusted its forecast only slightly downwards and is now expecting a harvest of 3.72 million tons, which, however, corresponds to a decrease of 3 percent compared to the previous year. The area under cultivation has decreased by 6 percent. For many corn crops, recent rainfall has come at the right time. In the new marketing year, soft wheat exports started more subdued than in the previous year. By the 2nd calendar week of 2023/24, 360,867 tons of soft wheat and 5,500 tons of durum wheat had been exported. Maize imports up to 9.7. are 225,008 tons. The export agreement for Ukraine expires next week. President Putin renewed yesterday that Russia will probably not sign the agreement beyond July 18. will extend beyond. There are currently hardly any signals pointing in another direction. In Russia, unlike in the USA, harvesting work is progressing well. There is also optimism about exports. A record volume is still expected for July.