28.
07.23
Volatile trading in grain markets

Getreide News, 07/28/2023

Bullish
  • Geopolitical conflict in Ukraine
  • Heatwave in the US
  • Forest fires/drought in Europe
Bearish
  • Harvest pressure in Europe
  • Export prices Russia
  • Attractive US dollar exchange rate
Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat Jun 22 Jun 29 Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 +/-
Hamburg 260.00 246.00 nn 250.00 266.00 16.00
Lower Rhine 262.00 248.00 248.00 259.00 248.00 -11.00
Upper Rhine 261.00 247.00 246.00 256.00 246.00 -10.00
East Germany 244.00 230.00 229.00 234.00 229.00 -5.00
feed wheat            
Hamburg 258.00 244.00 243.00 248.00 243.00 -5.00
Oldenburg 255.00 241.00 240.00 254.00 240.00 -14.00
feed barley            
Hamburg 223.00 208.00 211.00 220.00 211.00 -9.00
East Germany 213.00 198.00 201.00 210.00 201.00 -9.00
grain corn            
South Oldenburg 258.00 244.00 243.00 243.00 243.00 0.00
Cash markets in view euros/ton
canola 22June Jun 29 Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 +/-
Hamburg 454.00 431.00 462.00 497.00 462.00 -35.00
Straubingen 449.00 426.00 448.00 492.00 454.00 -38.00
soybean meal            
Hamburg 449.00 449.00 452.00 481.00 499.00 18.00
Magdeburg 459.00 459.00 462.00 491.00 509.00 18.00
Mainz 483.00 461.00 495.00 495.00 511.00 16.00
rapeseed meal            
Hamburg n.n. nn 304.00 316.00 302.00 -14.00
Hamm 327.00 327.00 330.00 317.00 310.00 -7.00
Lower Rhine 323.00 323.00 340.00 320.00 229.00 -91.00

Wheat prices on Euronext closed trading yesterday with a red sign. September slipped into the red at EUR 2.00 per tonne and quoted a settlement price of EUR 251.50 per tonne. Likewise, the wheat contracts on the CBoT could not reverse the sign and thus continued their price correction. Agricultural markets were characterized by volatile trading this week. Grain prices corrected again in the past few days after the Russians shelled important Ukrainian ports and gave up their gains again. With the sharp rise in prices, many investors took the opportunity to take their profits and liquidated their positions. The news that two of the affected ports in Ukraine had already resumed work provided some relief. The damage was not as severe as initially feared by many market participants. In the USA, in addition to reports from the Ukraine, the focus remains on the weather in particular.Although some rain last week improved the tense situation in the key growing areas, concerns remain that the new heatwave could have a negative impact on crop yields. Yesterday the latest assessment of the Wheat Quality Council was published. Experts expect yields could reach 47.4 bushels per acre, down from last year's results of 49.1 bushels per acre. Around 44% of the summer wheat stocks are suffering from the temperatures and the lack of precipitation.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The agricultural markets have been volatile over the past week and given the general situation, little is likely to change. The reports from the Ukraine, as well as the weather, remain unpredictable, so that no clear direction can be set for the courses.

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