04.
08.23
Wet weather is worrying local grain growers

Getreide News, 08/04/2023

Bullish
  • Uncertain export deals Ukraine
  • Heat wave/forest fires in southern Europe
  • Export business in the USA more dynamic again
Bearish
  • Harvest pressure in Europe
  • Improved weather forecast in the USA
Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat Jun 29 Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 Aug 3 +/-
Hamburg 246.00 nn 250.00 266.00 249.00 -17.00
Lower Rhine 248.00 248.00 259.00 248.00 248.00 0.00
Upper Rhine 247.00 246.00 256.00 246.00 245.00 -1.00
East Germany 230.00 229.00 234.00 229.00 233.00 4.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 244.00 243.00 248.00 243.00 247.00 4.00
Oldenburg 241.00 240.00 254.00 240.00 243.00 3.00
feed barley
Hamburg 208.00 211.00 220.00 211.00 204.00 -7.00
East Germany 198.00 201.00 210.00 201.00 180.00 -21.00
grain corn
South Oldenburg 244.00 243.00 243.00 243.00 245.00 2.00
Cash markets in view euros/ton
canola 29June Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 Aug 3 +/-
Hamburg 431.00 462.00 497.00 462.00 429.00 -33.00
Straubingen 426.00 448.00 492.00 454.00 438.00 -16.00
soybean meal
Hamburg 449.00 452.00 481.00 499.00 482.00 -17.00
Magdeburg 459.00 462.00 491.00 509.00 492.00 -17.00
Mainz 461.00 467.00 511.00 511.00 503.00 -8.00
rapeseed meal
Hamburg n.n. 304.00 316.00 302.00 302.00 0.00
Hamm 327.00 330.00 317.00 310.00 299.00 -11.00
Lower Rhine 323.00 340.00 320.00 229.00 289.00 60.00

On the Euronext/Matif, the bearish mood continued to prevail just before the weekend. On the domestic cash market, market participants are concerned about the current grain development. In the past few days, heavy and heavy rainfall has caused field work to come to a standstill again and again. The stocks are mostly ready for harvest, but the moisture is the main cause of quality problems. Especially B-wheat could be problematic. In addition to the loss of quality, there are more and more grain stocks and also cause difficulties during the harvest. Especially with a view to the coming weeks, market participants expect that the supply of feed grain will increase due to the lack of quality. Even the most recent attack by Russia on a port on the Danube in Ukraine was only able to curb the losses in the USA for a short time, so that they continued to ease during yesterday's trading session. According to the latest UCAB publications, last month Ukraine was only able to get around 2.3 million tons of grain out of the country. This corresponds to a decline of 40% and thus Russia has achieved its goal of severely disrupting Ukraine's export business.On the other hand, the export quantities of oilseeds increased, amounting to 330,000 tons and thus corresponding to an increase of 37%. According to the USDA, US export bookings last week totaled 421,000 tons, at the higher end of analysts' expectations. Especially in the Middle Kingdom, the grain was delivered and sold. The corn contracts on Euronext ended trading with slight losses. These were somewhat stronger on the stock exchange in the USA. Weak indications from the wheat markets as well as the disappointing export figures weighed on the mood. Around 455,000 tons of corn were booked, according to the USDA. The result was therefore below the expectations of most market participants.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

In the past few days, the wheat market in particular has been firmly in the hands of the bears. Despite developments in Ukraine and renewed attacks on the Danube ports, the bulls failed to regain the lead. Especially in this country, the current weather conditions could reduce the harvest pressure, especially for the AB qualities of wheat. On the other hand, the corn stocks could again benefit from the precipitation and with it the earnings prospects.

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