Getreide News, 09/01/2023

Things have been heading south for wheat and corn in the last few days. With the closing bell on Thursday, prices were weaker than at the closing bell on Monday. Wheat in the most traded December date ended the trading session yesterday with a settlement of 221.75 euros/t; on Monday it was still 240.25 euros/t on the Paris stock exchange's display board. Wheat was also under pressure to sell on the CBoT. First and foremost, new speculation about a grain agreement caused prices to fall. Yesterday and today the foreign ministers of Turkey and Russia are meeting for working discussions, which will also focus on grain deliveries to Ukraine. Next Tuesday there will be a meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan in Russia. However, negotiations about a sequel do not seem particularly promising. Russia brought a variant into play whereby Russian wheat would be shipped via Turkey with the aim of exporting it to poorer countries. Trading remains calm on the cash markets in Germany.On the one hand, producers are not very willing to sell and are busy sorting the qualities, on the other hand, the concentrated feed industry in particular is already well supplied and only sporadically asks for quantities. At the wholesale level, there are declining trends again. Compound feed prices currently remain mostly stable. European exports did not reach the previous year's level in the first nine weeks of the new marketing year. So far, around 4.48 million common wheat have been exported, compared to 6.31 million tonnes in the same period last year. Barley exports are also at a lower level. It was announced this week that Egypt purchased 120,000 tons of milling wheat from France and Romania. Recently, European providers have repeatedly been able to prevail against Russian offers. In the USA, the winter wheat harvest has come in, the spring wheat harvest is still ongoing and is still lagging behind last year's pace. US export figures continue to be disappointing. The Canadian statistics agency has revised the forecast for production there down significantly and is expecting a harvest of 29.47 million tons, which is 14 percent less than the previous harvest.CanStat thus once again underperformed market expectations and provided corresponding support in trading. The speculation and the content of the upcoming talks between Putin and Erdogan also initially provided support for corn. However, on a weekly basis there is a weaker price picture for corn. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture's preliminary harvest balance assumes a corn harvest including CCM of 4.2 million tons. In most cases, producers in this country are satisfied with the development, but not in all regions the corn plants were able to compensate for the heat-related damage during the summer. The bottom line is that the yields are likely to be at least average, and the overall harvest result is likely to be significantly better than last year. US state assessments were reduced on Monday, but by less than the market would have thought. Ethanol production is also declining, exports are solid. The current low water levels on the Mississippi are particularly problematic for corn transport to Mexico.While the contract prices for wheat and corn on the CBoT are more friendly pre-market today, the contracts on the Euronext/Matif started the trading day again weaker.