Getreide News, 11/03/2023

The start of this week was slow, but since Wednesday there have been signs of green again for wheat. With a closing price of 232.75 euros/t in December, the contract remains unchanged for the week. Today wheat prices will rise again until midday. Corn was unable to increase to the same extent and continues to trade somewhat weaker compared to the end of the last few weeks. Yesterday, the now most traded March date closed at 205.25 euros per ton. On the CBoT, however, both corn and wheat were slightly weaker on a weekly basis. The focus of market participants has recently been primarily on the hope that China will soon be able to purchase larger quantities of wheat on the world market. Because of its geographical location alone, the Middle Kingdom usually purchases its largest quantities of wheat from Australia. However, due to the changed cultivation areas and the dryness during the main vegetation, the harvest Down Under is likely to be significantly lower than in previous years. Recent rainfall has improved the outlook in Australia, but overall a weak harvest is expected.Traders from France in particular are hopeful and several market participants also assume that France could regain its top spot in export statistics. Romania currently leads the list of top exporters by a significant margin. Overall, European common wheat exports remain behind the previous year's figures. While 12.56 million tonnes of wheat had already been exported at this point in the previous year, this figure has now risen to 8.6 million tonnes as of the 18th calendar week. Only around 144,000 tonnes were exported last week. Barley exports are somewhat weaker than in the previous year and durum wheat bookings have also declined significantly. Durum wheat prices have recently risen significantly globally, primarily because the harvest volume in Canada was lower. Accordingly, there have now been reports from Moscow that the Ministry of Agriculture there is planning to limit durum wheat exports from December 1st. to be completely suspended until May 31, 2024. The analysis house Sovecon reduced its forecast for Russian exports this marketing year by 400,000 tons, which caused a surprise overall and drove up prices on Matif and CBoT. Several ships have recently set course for Odessa or have been able to leave the port loaded.Yesterday, Thursday, what attracted attention was the fact that the Russian air force apparently attacked targets along the alternative route over the Black Sea. US wheat exports continue to be well below expectations and weaker than in the previous year. Although the dollar has recently lost some of its strength again, which means that traders are hoping for better export opportunities, these are not yet reflected in the figures. Winter wheat sowing in the USA is progressing on schedule and at a pace that corresponds to the average of recent years. As was the case last year, the harvest in Argentina is causing concern. The farmers should soon take the combine harvesters out of the barns. Most of the time it was too dry in the country, but last week there was heavy rainfall, from which corn and soy in particular benefited. The grain corn harvest is not yet over in all regions. The harvest has recently been delayed by rainfall, which is why corn often comes from the fields too wet, which leads to higher drying costs.Demand on the actual market in Germany is still manageable, but due to better water levels on the Rhine, southern German corn producers in particular are hoping for better demand from the Netherlands. The yield reports in the regions vary greatly and range from around 8 t/ha to 14 t/ha. An analysis house expects a record corn harvest of over 17.6 million tons for Russia. The US corn harvest is at its target level and farmers have recently made good progress with few interruptions. The improved weather forecast in South America and recently weaker export bookings are putting a strain on the contracts on the CBoT, especially at the end of the week.