Getreide News, 11/10/2023

Both wheat and corn continue to show a sideways price trend. Today both types of grain are trading somewhat weaker again on the Paris Euronext/Matif, but roughly at the same level as the previous week. The latest figures from the US Department of Agriculture weighed on prices, especially yesterday. Both wheat production and especially the global corn harvest are valued higher compared to the October WADE. Overall, sales on the domestic cash markets for grain remain manageable. Concentrated feed plants continue to ask for supplies and in many cases the current prices are not yet enticing producers to take cover. The last areas of grain corn will probably have been harvested by the beginning of next week, only small quantities are still being registered in the collection trade, and a large part of the corn harvest will first be put into storage. Europe's exports of barley and common wheat continue to be significantly below the previous year's level. Export volumes have also fallen significantly each week in recent weeks and are below the average for the previous 19 calendar weeks of the current financial year. US exporters also continue to disappoint and are noticeably below the previous year's level.On the other hand, Russian exports remain at a good level, even if demand here is less dynamic compared to August and September. The shelling of a civilian freighter in the port of Odessa by a Russian missile caused a stir on Wednesday. This news caused prices to rise again, but yesterday there was nothing left of Wednesday's profits. What was decisive for trading in the last few days was WASDE, which was published yesterday evening. The USDA reduced global production slightly compared to its November estimate, but low exports and higher initial inventories put wheat prices under pressure yesterday and today. The wheat harvest is currently beginning in Argentina. The USDA lowered the forecast for the South American country by 1 million tons to 15 million tons. The USDA also expects slightly lower production for Brazil. For Europe, the UDSA expects slightly higher production of 134.3 million tons (previously 134.0 million tons). The production forecast for Russia in particular was raised yesterday. Instead of 85 million tons, the USDA experts are now assuming 90 million tons, but this is below the estimates of Russian analysis houses such as Sovecon.There were no changes in Ukraine, but the ministry believes the country can export more than before. Overall, however, lower wheat production is expected compared to the previous year. For corn, however, the USDA significantly raised its forecast. Instead of the previous figure of 1.21 billion tonnes, global corn production is now expected to be 1.22 billion tonnes. The US harvest was increased, as were the numbers for Russia. For Europe, however, the corn forecast was only adjusted upwards slightly to 59.80 million tons. This week, the Ukrainian Grain Association significantly increased its expectations for corn production there; yesterday, the USDA report also increased by 1.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons to the north. However, especially on the CBoT, corn prices were supported by good export demand and were therefore able to contain their losses.