Getreide News, 11/25/2023

Things went significantly south for wheat this week. Prices were under pressure. Yesterday, Friday, the most traded March date closed with a settlement of 225.75 euros/t and a daily loss of 3.25 euros. On Friday of the previous week there was a price of 232.25 euros/t on the Euronext/Matif display board in Paris. Things also went south on the CBoT, although on a weekly basis the losses were not as significant as on Euronext/Matif. The prices for maize in the Matif were stable over the week and have fallen slightly. The closing price on Friday was 204.50 euros/t for the most traded March date; last Friday the same contract was at 205.75 euros/t. The corn contracts on the CBoT also ended this trading week with only marginal changes. The sowing of winter wheat continues to be slow and is hampered by high levels of rainfall in Europe. In France in particular, farmers are making little progress; sowing is usually completed by mid to late May. Farmers in Ukraine, on the other hand, are making good progress. According to the Ministry of Agriculture in Kiev, the sowing is taking place on an area of 4 million hectares and the sowing is almost completed.According to estimates, the cultivated area is likely to remain at about the same level as the previous year. The war in the country continues to have a noticeable impact on cultivation. However, according to various reports and statements, exports appear to be working relatively well via the alternative sea route. In Russia, sowing work is also stalling due to the weather, especially along the Black Sea coast. Exports have stabilized in Russia and have not changed this week, according to the consulting firm Sovecon. In addition to export competition, European grain prices are also being kept in check by a stronger euro. Europe's export volumes continue to lag behind last year's volumes. Overall, the situation on the cash markets has changed little. Feed mills and mills demand restrained quantities, especially given the falling prices on the stock market. However, discussions are increasingly being held for the coming harvest. Across the Atlantic, Canada's agriculture agency Agriculture Canada reported new export figures on Thursday. At currently 5.5 million tons, these are above the volume of the previous year.For the year as a whole, the authority had expected a reduction in exports from 20.1 million tonnes in the previous year to 18.0 million tonnes in this current marketing year. Market observers assume that Agriculture Canada will soon revise its export forecast for the current marketing year. In the USA, export figures are disappointing overall and are below the previous year's result. However, the news that China bought 110,000 tons of wheat from the USA supported the market. Winter wheat sowing is at the target level and stocks are rated significantly better by the USDA than a year ago. Trading in corn on the local cash markets remains manageable this week. The US harvest is in the home stretch. The weekly production of ethanol has recently fallen and this has depressed the price development over the course of the week. Better weather prospects for Brazil are also having a negative impact. Rain showers have fallen and more are forecast and are expected to bring relief. The corn harvest in Ukraine is almost complete; according to the government, 23.7 million tons have already been harvested. APK Inform recently increased its forecast for the harvest and announced a total production of 26 million.tons instead of 24.5 million tons.