02 Jun 2023: FAO estimates world grain supply higher than last year

FAO: Grain production and consumption 1% higher in 2023/24 than in the previous year In its June 2023 issue, the FAO estimates the world grain supply in 2023/24 to be around 1% higher than in the previous year. The production of grain without rice is estimated at 2,289 million t (previous year 2,270 million t). Grain consumption (without rice) should amount to 2,280 million t (previous year 2,258 million t). This results in a slightly increasing end stock of 675 million t. The number of supplies is calculated as 30.4% of end-of-life consumption and is slightly below the previous year's figure of 30.6%. The FAO estimates the supply situation in the wheat sector at a harvest of around 24 million t lower at 777 million t and an increasing consumption of 780 million t. The reason for this is the decline in the harvests in Russia and Australia to an average level after the record results in the previous year. The ending inventory is calculated at a slightly reduced 308 million t. For the rice market , the FAO assumes that the supply situation will improve if the harvest increases but the increase in consumption is not as high.The FAO estimates the production of fodder grain , with a focus on maize, at 1,513 million t or around 3% higher than in the previous year. Consumption increases to 1,503 million t (previous year 1,478 million t). This results in a falling end stock of 366 million t or 23.6% of consumption (previous year 23.5%). The FAO thus also confirms a fundamentally good average supply situation in 2023/24. Previous forecasts for the world harvest 2023/24:

Some of the estimated results are based on different survey and calculation methods and are therefore not directly comparable. What they all have in common, however, is an increasing direction of development compared to the previous year. Also, the decrease in wheat production and the increase in corn production are all predicted in a similar way. Compared to previous years, the most recent price development is based on a less endangered supply security with sufficient supply.