1st USDA estimate: World grain market 2024/25 with little change from previous year
In its latest May issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published an initial estimate of the world grain supply in 2024-25. Global production and consumption are expected to increase only slightly. However, stocks are trending downwards compared to the previous year.
Global wheat production is characterized by very different developments in the individual growing regions. Declines are expected for the EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, the UK and some North African countries. This will be offset by rising production volumes in India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, China and the USA. On the consumption side, a slight increase of +0.25% is expected overall. Stocks will fall by 1.5%; the supply figure is calculated at 25.6% final stocks to consumption (previous year: 26.0%).
Global maize production is estimated at 1,220 million tons. Increasing harvests are expected in China, Brazil, the EU-27 and South Africa. This will be offset by reduced harvests in the USA, Ukraine and Russia. Maize consumption is expected to rise by +0.4%, with China leading the way. Final maize stocks will be reduced slightly.
With the exception of barley, no significant changes in production and consumption are expected for the other cereals. Global barley production is expected to grow by around 5.5 %, with a focus on the EU-27. Consumption is estimated to be of a similar magnitude. Ending stocks will remain largely unchanged.
Rising prices were observed on the leading stock exchanges. The background to this is the dominant view that global supplies are becoming increasingly scarce and uncertain. (see chart)
