Prospects for the crop year 2017
Will be 2017 a year with low grain prices from 100 to €130 per t, or maybe on the contrary with €200 / t, and more? There will be more constantly running or turbulent course developments?
For the months of the year 2017 there are a number of relatively safe thereten in the near future and on the other hand only statistically probable information in the course of the subsequent year. Taking into account market-based relationships, the frame can be it for derive first fundamental orientation.
First is the recent and current harvests a worldwide To derive the grain offering , that goes far above that of the previous years. The offer amounts are greater than the projected consumption figures in any case. The result is an growing overhang of grain, which has increased in recent years from just under 400 to over 500 million tons. This is a remarkable reserve created, partly or wholly to compensate for any reduced harvests at world level. At least the supply potential and extreme price developments are tempered.
Australia's harvest ended shortly before the end of the year with a record of over 40 million tons and an above-average export offer. For the next few months can be enough grain on the world market is offered. The looming import needs of India amounting to approximately 10 million tons is among others to a good part of Australia with regard to quantity and quality can be controlled.
From the South American countries Argentina and Brazil is expected in the next few weeks and months of the new year 2017 also with high harvests the wheat and maize. Fears of drought effects are limited to regional events. The wheat crop in Argentina is estimated at 15 million tons in previous years to 10 million, the order of the day were. From the Argentine corn harvest of increased 36 million tonnes are only 25 million tonnes for export available.
Brazil's first and second crop of corn is classified in the 1st half of 2017 to 86.5 million tonnes after weak last year, only 67 million tonnes were harvested. In previous years, the results were between 80 to 85 million tonnes. The Brazilian export potential is estimated at 20 million tons. Both South American countries could bring in the 1st half of between 40 to 45 million tonnes maize on the market. When a strong dollar exchange rate US exports in the competition have can keep problems. However, he wins real value in recent times.
Despite the bumper harvests in the Black Sea region Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and previously high export activity are in the winter months due to the weather-related difficulties with the transport of the export quantities these countries taken back. The pressure from this side should be significantly lower in the first few months of the year 2017. Importing countries of North Africa and the Middle East with a current import demand will seek other sources.
The EU is only limited in able quantities of grain in the magnitude earlier Ensure years of approximately 50 million tonnes available. The extraordinary weak harvest - in particular in the main cultivation and export area France - allows only 35 million tonnes according to recent estimates of the Commission. It lacks not only the quantity but also the quality required.
The second largest wine-growing area of the world China is currently fighting with the timely removal of the accumulated surpluses, which increasingly are in danger of falling to the mercy to the victims. Speaking of parts size of 20 million tonnes, which are more suitable for the food or feed rail. A way out is to use for the production of bio-fuels and of the production of plastic. China's participation in the world market lags significantly behind the previous year.
For the 1st half of the year 2017 is next with a compensation-eligible grain market course without bottlenecks at a high power level.
For the harvesting of the winter wheat species from the middle of the year 2017 , the acreage have been estimated several times. In the United States, it is the lowest acreage of wheat for decades. Also, recent frosts for Dewinterizing damage have remain provided, the amount of which is still unclear. The U.S. market share for the wheat holds appropriate with 55 million tonnes in the world harvest of 750 Mt in borders. US wheat exports with nearly 25 million tons will also lose market share for years. The importance of U.S. wheat trade wanes.
In the EU of almost the same area goes for winter grain of how in the past year. Assumed average income would be back to a EU crop by 310 to 315 million tonnes. The year 2016 delivered only 294 million tons. However the surplus stocks are estimated at only 43 million tonnes instead of around 50 million tonnes in the previous years.
In Russia t should have been the arean the previous year once again some increase. Crops are mostly gone with sufficient growth in the winter, so that again a high harvest could be expected. However, the continental climate is always high risk with very cold winters and hot and dry summer months. It would be the 5th year in a row without any significant climatic burglaries. In the past, there was significant crop losses by Dewinterizing damage and drought with considerable regularity of 3 to 5 years in the months of May and June. Or is noticeable here climate change ?
The sowing conditions for winter wheat in the Ukraine were not so favourable. Of the planned area just 90% should be appointed. First Dewinterizing damage were found in still-unknown proportions. However, the cultivation shifted increasingly on the corn for years.
