01.
03.16
14:31

Abares. World cereals estimates from the previous year. but high surplus stocks

ABARES estimates a lower wheat harvest 2016/17

On the occasion of his two-day Conference to the perspectives on the agricultural markets 2016/17 Australian Department of agriculture (ABARES) of a global wheat harvest in 710 million is  t out.  The International Grains Council (IGC) has estimated in its Feb. issue already a similar order of magnitude.

The reasons for the decline are seen in smaller acreage of 1% and only average income for the excellence of the previous year. -6% India-5% and in the EU with 1% less is expected in the United States. Lower Flächenerträge are expected in the United States in (d) EU, Black Sea region, North Africa, China and India. In the Ukraine alone, one is due to dryness and Dewinterizing to approximately 8 million tonnes smaller wheat crop estimates. Higher harvests in Argentina are around 2 million tonnes.

The global wheat consumption is estimated again lower at 714 million tonnes (previous year 718 million tonnes). The justification lies in the lower feed consumption, because as a result of weak corn harvests in parts of the world in 2015/16 wheat was used for food purposes.

However, the Australian Department of agriculture is based on a good supply of wheat . Contribute to this above-average surplus stocks in the United States and the EU. China's wheat supplies remain sidelined due to lack of export activity.

The global wheat trade will be larger in the year 2016/17. Higher imports are expected in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the exports from the Black Sea region with a focus on the Ukraine will decline significantly. Causes include e. Other export countries such as the EU and the United States be as greater amounts of compensation.

Particularly Argentina regaining importance in international trade business with a larger wheat crop, tax-free export opportunities and a weak currency. This development is supported by the low overseas freight rates.

Wheat prices in 2016/17 to remain according to estimates of the Ministry under the level of the previous year.  

Australian estimates of the global corn harvest in the year 2016/17 than larger something with 982 million tonnes to 1% in the current year. On the positive side are higher acreage and yields in the EU and the United States than in the previous year. Lower expectations for crops in South America with a focus on Brazil to restrict the production increase however.  The reduction in the minimum price guarantees China will are expected to contribute to any further increase in corn production.

Corn consumption will rise by impact the production of bioethanol from maize as a result of low crude oil prices by 1%. The focus is in the United States.

The corn trade 2016/17soll according to the Australian Department of agriculture remain almost unchanged. The surplus stocks are classified on 217 Mio.t or 4% higher. The Australian Department in the coming financial year to 3% sees lower corn prices.

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