Agricultural markets at the turn of the year: grain market 2015

Agricultural markets at the turn of the year

Good harvests 2014 - reduced harvest prospects, 2015 - price level

The past year 2014 has given the world's good harvests. In the EU, United States and China record harvests have been driven in other areas such as  There have been Black Sea region at least above-average results. More closely the conditions in Australia have failed. But in any wine-growing area is to drastic shortfall . Rather has rarity value. 

The above-average Flächenerträgeare decisive for the good results, while the cultivation and crop areas have remained largely constant. Highest hectare come in addition to the income-influencing measures such as fertilizers and plant protection through favorable weather developments during production and harvest.

High opening balances from the previous year and a great harvest together deliver an above-average bid amount on the world grain market. Global demand has also increased, but remains in the boundaries of a steady increase in demand for direct human consumption, a moderately rising animal feed consumption and no longer booming industrial use, especially in the bio-energy sector.

The supply situation allows a structure of global inventories, which contributed to a reduction in the price level. In the post-harvest phase , the price pressure was particularly noticeable under the undifferentiated impression of a lot of harvest. In the aftermath of increasing shortages in certain sectors and regions turned out to be, which extend up to the year 2015.

Russiaexpects to high exports due to its weak currency despite good harvests is a centre of its own supply security fears. Export limits on export taxes and other measures should the sale to prevent. The importing countries from the Mediterranean region have to change inevitably to less inexpensive export regions.

The EU is due to his bumper crop 2014 and his weak euro to the regions that are competitive enough to meet the needs for the rest of the grain year. However, the year's problem of an unusually high proportion of feed wheat leads to bottlenecks in the availability of wheat qualities required for the trade. This has contributed significantly to the price pastures in the autumn of 2014 and will also for the first half of 2015 for the defining characteristic of the market and price developments.    

The harvest will be 2015 by various institutions significantly weaker misjudged. Matching opinion is the observation that a multiple repetition of weather-based record revenues is very unlikely. Lower harvest results by 2-3% for the year 2015 to predict cultivation changes on little / harvest areas and trendy yield increases. There are a number of tangible ways, which underpin the assumptions for the forecasts.

In parts of Russia winter sowing is estimated as a result of drought and low stocks with less hardiness already with 15 to 20% crop decline . In the Ukraine , is expected to significantly attenuated harvest 2015 due to the economical use of inflation due to the expensive equipment for seed, fertilizer, crop protection and fuels. In the United States , the winter wheat areas remain back already behind the previous year. The US corn must fear that the less expensive soybean will occupy an additional part of the land for themselves. In other parts of the world, the weather phenomenon EL Nino leads to dry damage, such as in Australia.

Follow the corresponding projections for the supply situation is in 2015, that to expected weaker harvest through the high surplus stocks in part although compensated, but are not sufficient to meet an average growing demand in the global grain sector. As a result, it will return by 2015/16 deplete the supply warehouses in during the year, engineer. Inventory reduction is always a sufficient signal for price increases.  

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