Anticipated crop losses in Australia by El Nino

Abares estimates a lower Australian harvest, warns of uncertainty of treasure

The Australian Department of agriculture (Abares) has the prospects of the Australian wheat crop in its June estimate significantly degraded in the Nov/Dec 2015. For wheat is the upcoming outcome to 23.6 million tonnes (previous year 23.7 million tons) down. The barley harvest should be slightly better due to surface with 8.25 million tonnes. The "small" grains such as oats (1.4 million tons), sorghum (1.8 million tonnes) cheaper cut in the forecast. The major crops are decisive.

The El Niño weather phenomenon will effect most likely this year. Normally meets the precipitation poverty expected to the East and South of Australia's much more pronounced than the half as great Western wine-growing area.

The current El Nino intensity has been very different in the earlier years. In the years 1994/95 and 2002/03 and 2006/07, the harvest results in the Eastern Australia by more than 50% lower compared to the average years have failed. Relatively low crop losses were observed in the year 2010/11.

According to the previous state, the variance of the probability of precipitation was expected by the average value in the period of June with emphasis in New South Wales and southern parts of Queensland by 25-40% August 2015 in Eastern Australia. However, higher-than-average rainfall is forecast in the Western region.

Australia exports about 75% of its wheat and barley crop on the world market. Thus, the land at the turn of the year plays a key role in supplying port on the northern hemisphere harvests. A high intensity of the EL Nino weather phenomenon could call into question yet again decisively the global supply situation. It is linked to high price instability.

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