Australian Department of agriculture: despite El Niño good average harvest
Despite all predictions of an intense El Niño weather event from Oct. 15 to March-16 estimates the Australian Department of agriculture in its quarterly output the upcoming grain harvest on rd. 41 million tonnes by around 8% higher than in the previous year. The result would be almost identical to the good average harvest in 2013/14.
Usually has a EL Niño weather with langanhaltender drought especially in the growing regions of Southeast Australia. The Western Australia region remains little or not affected in General. The weather phenomenon for decades is however unpredictable in its effects. There are crop failures and other years with only minor reductions in harvest years with more than 50%.
For the coming half year, the agro-meteorological data showed that average temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean would have to lead to an high intensity of the betting event . Other readings suggest possibly to flow conditions between the Indian and Pacific oceans, Australia could be affected. The main direction could lead to a slightly more northerly track to the Southeast Asian Islands and the southern parts of the Asian continent. The flow conditions are however variable. Changes are possible at any time.
In case of an undisturbed average harvest estimates the Australian Ministry of wheat harvest on an order of magnitude of 25.3 million tonnes. In the case of the barley it comes to around 8.6 million tonnes and for rapeseed is estimated at 3.1 million tonnes.
More than 70% of the quantities of this harvest are for export to determine. Thus Australia provides highly connecting globally as of Nov./Dec. 2015, when other crops in the northern hemisphere have been completed. Crop results could lead to significant errors of the world grain supply and thus influence price developments.
In the coming months Sept./Okt.-15 the yield crucial grain formation and grain filling takes place. Sufficient rainfall are necessary to make this process successful. The risk of crop remains high.
