Ongoing Australian grain harvest and exports are 20% worse - dryness in eastern Australia even more dramatic.
The grain harvest in Australia in November / December is estimated at approx. 23% worse than the 20-year average. In Eastern Australia , it should even be more than 50% . A persistent drought since sowing as of May this year has led to poor field emergence and moderate growth.
Australia regularly exports approx. two-thirds of its production volume . The focus is on wheat exports. Deliveries are expected to be 3 million t lower in the first few months of the new year. This aggravates the already scarce supply situation on the world level.
Australia's weak harvest has been hinted at for some time already and should already be priced in considerable parts already in the higher forward rates at the beginning of the new year. However, the final result may still be good for surprises.
The reduced export opportunities in Australia are part of further export cuts expected in the second half of the marketing year. Russia's smaller crop this year and the impending onset of winter are expected to contribute to noticeable reductions in Russian deliveries.
The below-average EU production and the cheap Russian exports have pushed back EU exports.However, EU exporters expect deliveries to third countries to increase in the coming months, if Russia should largely fail in the coming months due to winter transport disruptions. To what extent such a development will take place, remains open for the time being.
