Impact assessment: hard or soft Brexit for the German agricultural economy (Summarized results of model calculations of the von Thünen Institute) In contrast to most other trading partners, Germany is a net exporter of agricultural goods to Great Britain . In 2016, € 4.5bn of German exports to the UK was offset by € 1.35bn of imports from the UK. The trade surplus amounts to approx. € 3.1 billion. For meat products , the surplus of about € 500 million is the largest. These trade data suggest that a UK exit from the EU would have far-reaching consequences for domestic agricultural markets as well. In order to analyze the effects of an exit, a distinction is made between a model of a " soft" (free trade agreement scenario) and a "hard" (WTO scenario) Brexit.The results of the investigation show that the total agricultural foreign trade turnover (imports + exports) with the United Kingdom was reduced by approx . € 3 billion ("hard") or € 2 billion ("soft") . As a result, the German agricultural trade surplus with the United Kingdom would decrease by around € 2 billion ("hard") or € 1 billion ("soft") . However, as a result of trade diversion into other EU countries and third countries, the overall decline in trade for Germany is correspondingly lower . However, it remains that the domestic pork and poultry industry, together with the upstream supply areas, would be the most affected by Brexit. Due to the decline in trade volumes , the production value of pork and poultry decreases by 2.7% ("hard") or0.9% ("soft"). This is also with a reduction in the value of pork and poultry by approx. 2.3% ("hard") resp . 0.7% ("soft") connected. The decline in output in the other sectors is rather moderate at less than 0.5% . The adjustment effects associated with declines in production lead to a slight expansion of the beef sector , oilseeds, sugar and wheat . The trade effects affect mainly processed foods rather than primary agriculture . However, due to wholesale supply relationships, negative production effects on primary agricultural commodities can also be felt. Finally, the effects of an exit can only be estimated more reliably if specific key data are available.
