The CFTC data for wheat and maize from the 06.10.2015

The most recent USDA figures from the October 2015 has remained unchanged from the previous month when the grain in the sum. In the wheat the closing stock build still slightly up, while slightly reducing the coarse cereals. For oilseeds, the closing stock have also slightly increased. Therefore these numbers give little impetus to market activity and market participants are desperately looking for messages to get the courses. El Nino and drought in parts of Russia supply arguments for lower production, while the increasing reluctance to buy China and its growing stocks of end consumption expectations. The latter is perhaps the really significant in the current development. While the exports of Russia and the EU (due to the weak currencies) "super run", the North Americans currently on the goods "sit". Of above-average stock to use ratio (percentage of closing stock of consumption) in the grain and oilseeds is equally attributed the growing end stocks, as well as on the largely stagnant consumption. The currency and political risks remain the biggest uncertainties on the world commodities market. In the domestic spot market, it is fairly quiet, having in recent weeks increased sales of the product of the harvest of 2016 and sales for spring supplies from the harvest 2015 took place,. The producer prices rose in the last four weeks by about 10 euro / t.

Fertilizer prices are and remain relatively low in the next few months. The global overproduction and the cheap price of the crude oil are the main causes whose effect in terms of fertilizer costs the farmers comes to good. In particular the urea as the main nitrogen fertilizer is located at the affordable price level as two years ago. But be careful: for these reasons many farmers can afford the fertilizer. The production numbers of the last years show what can come of it.

In the reporting week to the 06.10.2015 the wheat speculator in Chicago have continued to rise from 14.699 positions from the net short positions, so now 11.949 NET short positions to book are available. Wheat prices recovered to consequently continue in Chicago and Paris.

When the corn speculators in Chicago, the rate-increasing trend continued also. With an increase of 50.316 contracts the net long positions have risen very sharply to a total of 117.729 contracts.

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