The wheat speculator in Chicago reduced the net short positions to 6.720 contracts on now 104.689 NET short positions in the reporting week to the 12.05.2015. These speculators opinion solidified some courses this side of the Atlantic. Time too much, get too little rainfall, flooding or drought, yet the usual weather that in the short term to move the courses. Long term, the fundamental data from the USDA and others "treasure" are more responsible.
The USDA figures anticipated for the year 2015/16 were released last week for the first time. The result when the cereal is completely unspectacular, hardly modified closing stock (minus 2 million tonnes, wheat plus 2 million tonnes, maize minus 4 million tonnes) compared to the last financial year. Some experts expected possibly a stronger reduction of closing stock in advance, which prevented but including a correction of initial data. The production for wheat and maize are higher than in the last year estimated low and consumption in the estimate.
The stock to use ratio wheat in the WJ 2015/16 is with 28.3% over the five-year average of 27.5% and coarse cereals with 17.5 still clearly above the average of 16.4%. Above-average closing stock speak for below-average rates and that's where we are today!
When the corn speculators in Chicago, little has changed in the last week of the report. The net short positions decreased to "lean" 405 contracts on 116.580 NET short positions, what maize prices on the stock exchanges this - and barely changed across the Atlantic.
In the overall portfolio of the grain corn of course plays an important role, which in the northern hemisphere only in the last few days was sown or must still be sown. Therefore the earnings forecast is still very "fragile" and the actual production of the corn "is still in the stars". Nevertheless: The starting conditions for the corn are good and so far nothing against the estimated number speaks.
Conclusion: A marketing into subsets is and was the right recipe and a marketing degree (about part quantities, which were protected for a year) has 30 to 40% document consistent action.
