02.
12.14
11:25

The CFTC data for wheat and maize from 25 November 2014

The wheat speculator in Chicago are still using 12.103 NET short positions (minus 222 geg. Last week) about weighing on the selling side, i.e. the (slim) majority expects falling rates. In contrast, the courses in Chicago and Paris rise significantly. Everyone in the industry are surprised about the amount of the increase. Ultimately, there are no fundamentally sound reasons. I'm sure you reported weak wheat stocks in Russia and the Ukraine, and also in the United States the early frosts is the new sowing and corn stocks available to less than 10%. The rumors about Russian export restrictions more already a role "price-raising". The Chinese buy strong, what to find on the market. Also the world's scarce wheat qualities are cause of part of, while there is plenty of feed wheat. The wheat lowest in the United States and corn prices since 2010 had galvanized strong trade and consumption (including ethanol) since the beginning of October. The functioning of the market is evident here, low rates enable the consumption / supply, with the result that rising demand, the prices rise again. This phase can use the producer to a partial sale, since the total world harvest is above average and the closing stock have a definite plus over the last few years. The total grain that is "Stock to use Ratio" (proportion of the supplies of consumption) soothing 21% (wheat 27%, coarse grains 18%).

The Rhenish merchants and processors find goods of the new crop, increasingly can be seen also on the basis of improved (see chart). Currently the feed wheat reached nearly 10 euros / t bread wheat less than and winter barley "lags" still more Euro/t after 2-3.

Corn speculators in Chicago continue the trend toward building the net-long positions. A rich plus by 20,242 net long positions on a total 207.196 net-long positions clearly shows the direction where the courses follow willingly.

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