01.
09.15
15:23

The CFTC data for wheat and maize from the 25.08.2015

The net short positions when the wheat have increased in the last week of the report to the 25.08.2015 to 3.680 contracts on total 7.217 NET short positions. Thus, the rates remain under pressure.

After the largely closed off European grain harvest many of the relatively good yields and qualities are surprised. Only the upcoming corn crop will most likely achieve a weak result. The maize gap will be to close due to large imports, which can help the local maize price, less but the wheat prices. Now the view is, the grain, to the southern hemisphere and many farmers see the El Nino as a glimmer of hope. But "One swallow does we know still no summer". According to current USDA figures, we expect even after the marketing year which is expressed in the stock to use ratio by 2015/16 "lush" surpluses. The stock to use is the wheat ratio 30.9% (Lynda. 28.4% in a five year average) and coarse grains are 17.7% (Lynda. 16.4% in the five-year average). The closing inventories grow after this estimate to 7 million tonnes compared with last year. Thus, the amount from this viewing point of view moves for the first time in positive territory. The biggest uncertainty factors, however, are the economic and political uncertainties (e.g. China, Ukraine, IS unrest, Greece, etc.) This can increase the consumption (avoiding hunger) or reduce (bad economic numbers, export duties).

Maize, move the net positions are still in the net-long range, have moves but in the last few weeks on 73.537 net long positions down. Accordingly, the rates are under pressure.

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