The CFTC data for wheat and maize from the 9th September 2014

The net short positions to 10.026 contracts have increased in the last week of the report to the 09.09.2014 at the Chicago wheat (minus 3,054 net long positions, plus 6,279 NET short positions). This substantial change further brought prices under pressure. The higher world wheat end stocks expected in the run-up to the latest USDA figures may have been influence. As this expectation is also entered, prices fell up to today, Monday for the first time since many years again under 500 $Cent/bushel (corresponds to approx. 140 euro / t). In Paris it was unable to escape this price pressure, so in the meantime just 160 EUR / t for the Nov. 14 future were noted. As before, there are no significant momentum in the other direction, on the contrary, the production figures should confirm, to be expected due to the world's difficult economic situation even with stagnant consumption.

The Chicago corn something was able to escape the trend of wheat and the net-long positions have even taken to 1,350 contracts on total 81.446 net-long positions. Against the background of the expected huge maize harvest something amazing, because moving the courses also again declined. The declines were in recent days when the grain already the harbingers of closing stock in September higher estimated a fiscal year 2014/15 compared to the previous month. Therefore, the initial data corrected upwards play the crucial role compared to the roughly equally increased production and consumption figures. So are the estimated surpluses of now 51 million metric tons from WJ 2013/14 and 24 million metric tons from WJ 2014 / 15 on a total grain closing stock of 420 million t quite considerably and as high as since the beginning of the new millennium, No more. This year also clearly shows how estimates can change. In May of this year end stocks of 398 million tonnes in 2014/15 adopted at the USDA's first estimate for the WJ these have grown steadily each month to a total of 22 million tonnes. The current numbers have In addition increasingly quality, which affects the safety of the estimate. The somewhat "unsafe" provided for export quantities from the Ukraine (currently 10 million tonnes of wheat and 20 million tonnes of corn) are No more apply the "table of closing stock gains". So from this: there is little case for rising prices.

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