18.
01.15
16:25

The CFTC data for wheat and maize by January 13, 2015

Rethinking seems to take place at the wheat speculator in Chicago. The net-long positions lost 4,712 contracts on now 9.430 net long positions in the report week ending Jan. 13, 2015. The courses particularly in Chicago came heavily under pressure and lost the equivalent of 20 euros per tonne in the last few weeks. The courses in Paris keep on a 24 euro / t higher levels. The low price of oil, the Russian ruble problems, but also the weakness of the euro help the European farmers and promote the wheat prices. But be careful: If the price of oil remains on low, comes the non-food sales specifically in the corn in the ground to a halt. Also, the Weizenendbestände and the stock to use ratio would not give rise to further rate increases.

The latest USDA figures brought little change compared to the previous month. The wheat, there was an increase of 1 million tonnes of Gaither. the previous month, while the estimated closing stock at the coarse cereals by 3 million tonnes have been reduced. Overall still a comfortable supply situation with a compared with the wheat by 11 million tonnes and 14 million tonnes in the coarse grain. The total compared by 25 million tonnes in the crop runs to corn end stocks from 420 million tonnes. The stock to use ratio (share closing stock of consumption) is 21%, thus slightly above the five-year average of 20%. Above-average rates of all cereals are therefore difficult deducible (the wheat's average share price for the past five years was on the MATIF about 210 euros per tonne), but much lower rates are also not visible from this perspective.

Also at the Chicago corn out speculators in droves from the net-long positions. A minus of 22.024 contracts in the report week ending Jan. 13, 2015 led to fewer but still 204.611 net long positions. The courses in Chicago and Paris eased, appropriate to the situation but are converted to 129 euros / t in Chicago and 159 euro / t in Paris within the last 12 months are still at a good level.

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