16.
03.15
15:08

The CFTC data for the wheat and maize by March 10, 2015

Should you be happy or not? The problems in the eurozone such as the issue of Greece or the so-called "floods" by the ECB weaken the euro and help the current grain prices. Without this external aid the export would be didn't go so well and significantly lower rates. However, the impetus for the alterntigen courses should subside slowly. To market goods still 2014 who may worry slowly about.TheCurrent USDA estimatefor the marketing year shows no changes in the wheat compared to the previous month. The closing stock is growing compared to the previous year to 11 million t to 198 million tons.The coarse cereals, however, decreases the closing stock by 5 million tonnes compared to the previous month to now 219 million tonnes (compared to previous year yet an increase of 10 million t).Overall it remains at the grain with a plus of 21 million tonnes in the marketing year 2014/15 in a significant surplus.

In the wheat market the economic year device 2015/16 i.e. the harvest 2015 on the northern hemisphere increasingly into focus. The first of various organisations estimates worldwide by a somewhat rückläufigeren wheat and corn harvest. The roughly equal-sized global acreage no record will see income in fiscal year 2015/16 as expected in the United States such as the corn last year. Also from the Ukraine, lower harvesting and thereby export amounts are estimated as no ideal production can take place due to the political unrest. The first of the grain consumption estimates due to the declining world economy by lower consumption growth rates over the last few years. In total are expected to 2015/16 easily falling end stocks in the WJ so that the stock to use ratio (share closing stock of consumption) at the grain compared to the current USDA estimate for the marketing year 2014/15 by 1% to approximately 20% could decline. This over the last five years slightly below-average value means in turn thatexpectation of slightly above-average prices.Considering the wheat prices on the Paris MATIF starting in 2010, you can see a "huge" range of 120 to 270 EUR / t. This range result in average rates of around 200 euros per tonne. The stock to use ratio theory means that wheat prices for the upcoming crop could move back towards 200 euro / t - yes even slightly above -.In the reporting week to the 10.03.2015 the the wheat speculator in Chicago to 10,995 contracts NET short positions have increased on a total 67.410 NET short positions and reach almost the highest in the past two years.

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