16.
09.15
14:21

The CFTC figures of the 08.09.2015

The increase in the net short positions when the wheat speculator in Chicago on 47.460 contracts causes further pressure on wheat prices.

The current USDA estimates of the Sept 2015 expect a further increase in the worldwide stocks of wheat during the marketing year 2015/16 to 6 million tonnes compared to the previous month, while the coarse grain stocks declined in the same period to 2 million tons. These numbers can hardly expect that significantly reduce the pressure on the local wheat prices. In addition the "export joy" our neighbours, the Baltic States and the Black Sea, also "aimed at the traditional importing countries of Western European countries". Of course, even the USDA numbers can change Finally, the corn is not yet harvested and also the wheat crop in the southern hemisphere is still out. You should however look not quite past the current situation: A stock to use ratio in wheat by 31.7% is far above average (28.5% in the last five years) and was last seen in the marketing year 2009/10. The coarse grain is the stock to use ratio with 17.6% also far above the average of 16.4%. At the total cereals (excluding rice) over 2 billion tons will be harvested for the second time and all statisticians are pale, because one after another suggests a third record crop. The current stock to use ratio at the entire crop of 22.6% is above-average level at a height of WJ 2009/10, which the poor prices in memory are us.

Coming to stuttering engine of growth of China and the world economy isn't booming, as also indicated by the crude oil price. So rest the hopes of Western European farmers increasingly on monetary policy (shaky euro) and the EL Nino which although far away, can hold but increased influence on the crops in the southern hemisphere. And anyway, what predictions are already sure in particular policy is good for many a surprise.

Even when maize in Chicago, more and more speculators change the bearing. The net long positions is reduced to 29.724 contracts on now 47.261 net long positions. Thus, the rates remain under pressure.

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