14.
03.16
15:43

The CFTC figures for wheat and maize from the 08.03.2016

The net short positions when the wheat speculator in Chicago have declined during the reference week for the 08.03.2016 to 15.027 contracts on now 92.450 net short positions. According to the courses could recover.
In the last three to four months of spring 2016 wheat price has lost almost 40 EUR / t (in the last two weeks thankfully stabilized), despite the hopes of many farmers rather "were reversed at the end of last year". This assessment is documented also by the currently relatively high inventories. But what are based this hope? The proportion of estimated end structure of consumption, the so-called stock to use ratio, determines the course direction and in times of rising and above-average stock to use ratio there is hardly any good arguments for rising prices and of course vice versa (see also the chart at the end of the business ticker). Only monetary policy changes/uncertainties can affect regardless of the stock to use ratio the courses within a particular currency region. Currently for Europe a luck, the weak euro prevented a further fall in the price of grain. A relatively strong euro as in the years 2008/2009 would also currently much weaker grain prices. The current USDA numbers by March 2016 bring no major changes compared to the previous month. The wheat and the coarse grain of final data from the previous month to 3 million tonnes is estimated lower. With consumption expectancy of 1,971 million tons any significant changes, allowing the stock to use ratio at the wheat with 33.6% (5 year average 29.2%) and remained nearly unchanged in the coarse grain with 19.3% (16.9%). Experts set had a look on the next year 2016/2017, so the harvest of 2016, in the northern hemisphere. To do this, there is still no official USDA figures, but the first estimates of various other organizations. Then the sown wheat makes no "bad character" worldwide and the corn is still not sown. Therefore, such an estimate is still little relevance. Yet one thing seems clear: the global consumption of cereals is "flat" and the current inventories are continually revised upwards. Therefore at the moment there are still no good arguments for closing stock is depleting in the marketing year 2016/17, the consequences are likely to be clear for everyone. The current final stock forecast to 2016/17 can change quickly especially when corn such as in the disastrous heat in 2012 in the corn belt. However, is still in marketing to put everything on one card and continue to maintain the subset of marketing.

In contrast, the net short positions of the corn speculators in Chicago could lay to in the reporting week to the 08.03.2016 to 25.339 contracts on now 229.176 NET short positions.

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